Mar 24, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 24 07:31:59 UTC 2018 (20180324 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180324 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180324 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 72,164 4,312,677 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
MARGINAL 65,369 7,146,687 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180324 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 72,438 4,216,310 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
5 % 66,707 7,278,306 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
   SPC AC 240731

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms are expected over a portion of the Southern
   Plains primarily Monday afternoon and evening. Large hail and
   damaging wind are the main threats.

   ...Synopsis...

   The upper pattern will be dominated by a slow-moving positive-tilt
   synoptic trough over the western states and an upper ridge in the
   east. Low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within a southwest
   flow regime will advance through the southern and central Plains
   region. At the surface a warm front will extend southeast through OK
   and the lower MS Valley from a surface low over the central High
   Plains. A dryline will extend south from the low through west TX.
   The dryline will mix east during the day, while a cold front moves
   south through the central Plains, eventually merging with dryline
   across northwest OK overnight. 

   ...Southern Plains region...

   Elevated storms should be ongoing from parts of eastern OK and KS
   into the middle MS Valley in association with a lead impulse. This
   activity will shift northeast during the day. A moist boundary layer
   with dewpoints from the low 60s F in OK to the upper 60s across
   south TX will reside in warm sector beneath eastern extension of
   elevated mixed layer (EML) resulting in a corridor of moderate
   instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Warm air at base of the EML
   will probably cap the atmosphere to surface based storms most of the
   day. However potential will exist for isolated storms to develop
   along dryline by late afternoon.  Thunderstorms will become more
   likely Monday evening and overnight from northwest TX to OK along
   and ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front and in association
   with arrival of the next in series of shortwave troughs. Bulk wind
   shear of 45-60 kt will support some supercell structures with
   initial storms, but tendency may be for storms to grow upscale into
   an MCS with time.

   ..Dial.. 03/24/2018

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