SPC AC 290742

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
   MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
   MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
   Thursday in the Missouri Ozarks into the lower Ohio Valley and in
   the northern High Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough over the West Coast States will shift eastward
   into the northern Intermountain West.  A cold front will push
   eastward through portions of ID/MT while a warm frontal zone becomes
   better defined across the Dakotas.  Models suggest a mid-level
   impulse over the central Plains --perhaps convectively augmented--
   will move east on the northern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone
   centered over northern Mexico.

   ...Eastern KS east into the lower OH/TN Valleys...
   This forecast will likely depend on mesoscale details and inherent
   uncertainties associated with smaller-scale features.  Nonetheless,
   models suggest a weak impulse/belt of moderate westerly mid-level
   flow will move from eastern KS into the lower OH Valley by early
   evening Thursday.  Some thunderstorm activity may be ongoing
   Thursday morning over the Ozark Plateau in association with this
   weak feature.  One of several possible scenarios is for this
   early-day activity to weaken and additional thunderstorm development
   to occur farther east towards the MS River by early afternoon.  A
   moist boundary layer will undergo strong heating and yield moderate
   buoyancy.  Deep-layer shear will largely depend on the strength of
   the mid-level perturbation and a nonlinear feedback in terms of
   convective-scale thunderstorm organization potential.  With those
   concerns stated, it appears scattered thunderstorms will develop and
   isolated hail and strong to severe gusts resulting in wind damage
   may accompany the stronger storms before weakening by early evening.

   ...MT and western ND into eastern ID...
   Models indicate the eastward progression of mid-level trough into
   this area during the Day 3 period.  As large-scale ascent increases
   during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely
   develop by late afternoon.  Forecast soundings show deep-layer shear
   supportive of thunderstorm organization.  A low-level moisture axis
   is depicted from the western Dakotas into northeast MT.  It is here
   where buoyancy is likely to be greatest.  Severe gusts/hail are
   forecast to be the primary risks with the stronger storms.

   ..Smith.. 05/29/2018

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