SPC AC 040727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to briefly severe storms will be possible across New
   England on Friday, most likely during the morning hours.

   ...New England...
   Underneath an amplifying cyclonic-flow regime, a cold front will
   cross New England through the early afternoon. Showers and
   thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period,
   such that the potential for robust heating/destabilization appears
   limited. Mid-level lapse rates will be unimpressive as well. Still,
   surface dew points in the 60s to lower 70s will support weak/modest
   mixed-layer CAPE from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England
   ahead of the front. Across much of New England, westerly 925-850mb
   flow around 25-30 kt may enhance low-level shear sufficiently for
   weak updraft rotation. A considerable component of these shear
   vectors will likely be oriented parallel to convective bands, which
   will dampen the severe potential. However, a few line-embedded
   elements may produce locally damaging winds or perhaps a brief
   tornado during the first half of Friday.

   With southwestward extent (towards the Mid Atlantic), weakening flow
   and poor mid-level lapse rates will further reduce the severe
   threat. Therefore, despite considerable convective coverage, storm
   organization will likely be too low for severe probabilities at this
   time.

   ..Picca.. 07/04/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z