SPC AC 180741

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the
   Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley to Tennessee Valley.

   ...Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley to Tennessee/Ohio Valleys...
   A shortwave trough will continue to spread east-northeastward over
   the middle Mississippi River Valley and Midwest on Monday. Even
   while this system will begin to lose amplitude, a belt of seasonally
   strong low/mid tropospheric winds will continue to overspread parts
   of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley into the Lower Ohio Valley. The
   potential for relatively widespread cloud cover and precipitation
   should limit the overall magnitude of the severe risk. Regardless,
   potentially influenced by differential heating and outflows, storms
   should diurnally redevelop and intensify along, or more so, ahead of
   a cold front amidst moist/confluent low-level flow during the
   afternoon. While considerable uncertainty exists regarding the exact
   degree of destabilization, especially with northward extent into the
   Midwest/Ohio Valley, flow fields generally characterized by 30-35 kt
   effective shear magnitudes would support sustained multicells and a
   few supercells capable of primarily wind damage Monday afternoon and
   evening.

   ..Guyer.. 08/18/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z