SPC AC 190729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
   OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday especially across
   portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States.

   ...Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
   States...
   Although the primary surface cyclogenesis will be focused north of
   the International border, a semi-amplified belt of seasonally strong
   westerlies will overspread much of the region on Tuesday coincident
   with an eastward-moving cold front. While the possibility of
   relatively widespread early-day convection and cloud cover limits
   confidence in appreciable destabilization, relatively strong
   low-level shear and upwards of 35-40 kt effective shear suggests the
   potential for sustained multicells and some supercells where
   adequate diurnally enhanced destabilization occurs. This currently
   appears most probable across the north-central Appalachians and
   upper Ohio River Valley vicinity. That said, at least isolated
   severe storms may occur as far south as the Carolinas under a more
   modestly strong flow regime.

   ...Central High Plains...
   At least a few severe thunderstorms may occur across the region
   Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will be in association with
   enhanced moist low-level upslope flow to the north of a southern
   High Plains surface low and in conjunction with a moderately strong
   belt of westerlies to the north of the southern High Plains-centered
   upper-level ridge.

   ..Guyer.. 08/19/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z