Oct 12, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 12 07:25:13 UTC 2018 (20181012 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20181012 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181012 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 87,324 5,572,378 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Laredo, TX...Waco, TX...Abilene, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20181012 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 87,685 5,614,539 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Laredo, TX...Waco, TX...Abilene, TX...
   SPC AC 120725

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms are possible across much of central Texas and
   toward the middle Rio Grande Valley.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A broad expanse of southwesterly flow aloft will extend from the
   southern Plains into the Northeast, with a positive tilt trough axis
   extending from AZ to the upper Great Lakes. A large area of high
   pressure will surge south across much of the West and Great Plains,
   with a leading cold front into central TX by 00Z. Ahead of this
   front, substantial moisture will exist across TX, supporting
   destabilization with up to 2000 j/kg MUCAPE. While the surging front
   will eventually undercut much of the daytime activity, there may be
   a window for severe storms capable wind and hail. Given the
   potential for a narrow zone of severe threat, and predictability
   issues with the frontal position, will defer any upgrade to later
   outlooks.

   ..Jewell.. 10/12/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z