Feb 11, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 11 19:52:36 UTC 2019 (20190211 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190211 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190211 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 21,611 1,779,785 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190211 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190211 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190211 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 21,716 1,778,379 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...
   SPC AC 111952

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

   Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
   OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong storms producing hail will be possible this evening
   over parts of Oklahoma.

   ...20Z Update...

   ...OK...
   Agitated cumulus field across the TX Panhandle corroborates the
   potential for thunderstorm development later this evening across
   western OK as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the
   vorticity maximum now moving into the southern High Plains continues
   eastward. Despite marginal low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the
   upper 40s/lower 50s), cool temperatures aloft and resultant steep
   mid-level lapse rates will result in enough instability for a few
   more persistent updrafts. Combined with strong vertical shear (0-6
   km bulk shear over 50 kt), these updrafts may be able to produce
   sporadic hail.

   ..Mosier.. 02/11/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/

   ...OK...
   A strong upper trough is digging southeastward across the Rockies
   today, with strong height-falls and a mid-level thermal trough
   overspreading the central plains.  Large scale ascent will result in
   a deepening surface low over the TX/OK Panhandles, tracking eastward
   across OK this evening.  Widespread cloudiness in the warm sector of
   the low will limit destabilization and keep low-level lapse rates
   from becoming particularly steep.  However, low-level moisture is
   returning to the region with 50s dewpoints now as far north as the
   Red River.  By 22z, this setup will result in a mesoscale zone of
   favorable parameters for the potential of a few strong storms.

   A consensus of 12z CAM solutions agree that activity will form in
   southwest OK later this afternoon and track eastward through the
   early evening.  Forecast soundings suggest that the timing of the
   cooling aloft, moistening low levels, and passage of the low/front
   will yield a small window of space and time where a few rotating
   storms could produce hail.  As the activity moves eastward into
   eastern OK, even weaker thermodynamics should lessen updraft
   strength and limit the severe threat.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z