Mar 3, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 3 05:58:55 UTC 2019 (20190303 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190303 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190303 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 41,660 2,776,379 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...
SLIGHT 81,853 12,011,013 Atlanta, GA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Savannah, GA...Columbia, SC...
MARGINAL 83,202 10,159,596 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190303 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 29,931 1,998,663 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Dothan, AL...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...
10 % 30,029 2,007,703 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Dothan, AL...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...
5 % 93,280 12,723,641 Atlanta, GA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Savannah, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...
2 % 55,442 6,751,153 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Tallahassee, FL...Columbia, SC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190303 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 41,582 2,774,800 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...
15 % 81,783 11,974,722 Atlanta, GA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Savannah, GA...Columbia, SC...
5 % 83,308 10,197,285 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190303 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 103,616 8,979,130 Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...Savannah, GA...
   SPC AC 030558

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2019

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered straight-line damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be
   possible today across parts of the Southeast. A couple of these
   tornadoes could be strong across parts of southern/eastern Alabama
   into western Georgia, mainly this afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough will advance
   quickly eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast today. A
   south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to
   around 40-55 kt across parts of the Southeast by this afternoon. A
   weak surface low initially along the TX/LA border at the start of
   the period will develop northeastward to the vicinity of eastern GA
   and SC by this evening while gradually deepening.

   ...Southeast...
   Low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the surface low from
   southern LA/MS into parts of southern/central AL, northern FL, GA,
   and SC today. A cold front attendant to this low will sweep
   southeastward across this region through the period, and
   thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by this
   afternoon. Both low- and mid-level flow will strengthen as a 50-75
   kt mid-level jet overspreads this region. Forecast effective bulk
   shear of 40-50 kt will support organized updrafts across the warm
   sector. Although low and mid-level lapse rates will likely remain
   generally weak, some diurnal heating will occur ahead of the front,
   and increasing low-level moisture characterized by low to mid 60s
   dewpoints will likely support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak
   heating. Localized areas across parts of southern/eastern AL into
   western/central GA and the FL Panhandle may have MLCAPE up to 1500
   J/kg where surface heating and low-level moisture should both be
   maximized.

   The convection that will develop by early this afternoon along/just
   ahead of the cold front will likely pose an isolated to scattered
   damaging wind threat given strong low-level flow just off the
   surface and generally linear mode. There is a conditional threat for
   supercells to develop across the open warm sector ahead of the front
   per some convection-allowing model guidance, mainly in parts of
   southern/eastern AL into western GA this afternoon. If this scenario
   were to occur, then a few tornadoes would be possible given the
   strong shear associated with the previously mentioned low-level jet.
   A couple of these tornadoes could be strong where the greatest
   instability and shear are forecast to overlap, but much uncertainty
   remains regarding a favorable supercell mode/development ahead of
   the front. Storms will likely consolidate into a broken squall line
   and sweep eastward across GA into western SC from late afternoon
   into early evening, with mainly a damaging wind threat continuing. A
   tornado or two would also remain possible with embedded circulations
   within the line. Eventually instability is forecast to decrease with
   eastward extent as diurnal cooling occurs and the surface low moves
   off the NC Coast. Some lingering isolated wind threat may persist
   late tonight across parts of the coastal Carolinas.

   ..Gleason/Karstens.. 03/03/2019

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