The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the East Texas to lower Mississippi Valley region later today and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

   SPC AC 131612

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1112 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

   Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST
   TEXAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across
   parts of the south-central to southeast states through tonight. The
   most likely region for strong tornadoes is from east Texas to
   Mississippi, with the most dangerous period for tornadoes being
   between about 2 to 8 PM CDT.

   ...TX to TN Valley...
   No substantial changes to categorical areas with this outlook
   (beyond reducing area behind the convective line in TX).

   Surface cyclone near College Station should move northeast towards
   northwest LA and then across the Mid-South through tonight, as a
   warm front advances north from southeast TX/central LA. Parameter
   space is very supportive of supercells, with persistent
   warm-advection north of the front yielding a risk for large hail.
   Along and south of the front, main uncertainties are longevity and
   discreteness of favorable storm mode. A deeply moist boundary layer
   with upper 60s to lower 70s dew points will spread north, supporting
   preconvective MLCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg across southeast TX
   and southern LA. Such buoyancy will be quite favorable for all forms
   of severe, amid strengthening deep shear related to the approach of
   the mid/upper trough. Furthermore, low-level shear vectors and
   hodograph sizes will be quite large along and south of the warm
   front (from the Sabine Valley eastward), with forecast soundings
   yielding 250-600 J/kg effective SRH. Any sustained supercells in
   this environment will be capable of significant tornadoes.

   With time this evening and overnight, convection should organize
   into a roughly north/south-aligned band over the Lower Mississippi
   Valley region, as deep convergence becomes better-focused in the
   mass response ahead of the synoptic wave. As this occurs, the main
   threat in a bulk sense may become damaging wind tonight. However,
   given the strong inflow-layer SRH, tornadoes still will be probable
   from both embedded supercells and QLCS mesovortices.

   ...Central/eastern NC...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through this
   afternoon, offering the potential for locally strong wind gusts and
   marginally severe hail.

   Mid/upper-level support will be lacking, beneath a belt of 
   southwesterlies aloft. But the region will straddle a low-level
   moist axis characterized by surface dew points generally in the
   mid/upper 60s F, supporting preconvective MLCAPE from 1000-2000
   J/kg. Though low-level flow will be weak, limiting boundary-layer
   shear and hodograph size, the height gradient will remain
   sufficiently tight aloft to support strong storm-relative winds in
   upper levels, and effective-shear around 40-45 kt. As such, a few
   organized multicells and sporadic supercell structures will be
   possible. Storm intensity will diminish after sunset.

   ..Grams/Wendt.. 04/13/2019

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z