Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Wichita, KS...Enid, OK...Ponca City, OK...Derby, KS...El Dorado, KS...
Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
San Antonio, TX...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...Overland Park, KS...
SPC AC 170603
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...
Severe storms capable of damaging wind and hail are expected today
and tonight across parts of western and central Texas, Oklahoma and
Kansas. Additional storms capable of damaging winds, hail and a
couple of tornadoes are possible from late evening into the
overnight hours from eastern Texas into Arkansas and northern
Louisiana. Additional isolated severe storms are also possible
across Missouri into western Illinois and southern Wisconsin.
A complex severe weather scenario is expected to evolve today
encompassing portions of the southern/central Plains eastward to the
ArkLaTex and northward through portions of the middle MS Valley
vicinity. Strong southerly flow will bring near-60s dewpoints as
far north as far southern WI by late afternoon. Several features
will promote areas of strong to severe thunderstorms from the
afternoon hours through the overnight period as a large-scale trough
shifts eastward from the Rockies and extends from the Upper MS
Valley to the southern Rio Grande Valley by 12z Thursday.
The bifurcated nature of the upper trough will complicate the
evolution of the severe threat. A northern shortwave trough will
provide forcing for severe thunderstorms focused across parts of
eastern IA, southern WI and northern IL in the afternoon. These
storms will develop in the vicinity of a surface low and a warm
front extending west-east across southern WI. A cold front will
stretch southwestward from this low to another surface low
developing over the TX Panhandle. This second surface low is in
response to a southern shortwave trough migrating eastward from NM
into the southern Plains. A dryline extending southward from the
Plains low will be sharply defined across western OK into central
TX, with the cold front extending from northwest OK into southeast
KS and eastern IA by 00z. These three features: 1) IA/WI/IL triple
point, 2) Plains low and cold front and 3) Plains dryline, will be
the main focus for severe thunderstorm development during the
afternoon and continuing into the night time hours.
...Eastern IA/Southern WI/Northwest IL Vicinity...
The severe threat across the area will be somewhat conditional as
weak capping is expected around 700 mb. However, vertical shear
profiles will support supercells. Especially concerning would be any
cell that develops in the vicinity of the triple point/warm front.
Here, backed low-level winds will enhance low-level rotation
potential and forecast 0-1 km SRH values greater than 200 m2/s2
support this favorable shear parameter space for tornadoes.
Boundary-layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints increasing to
around 58-62 F, but should be sufficient to support a severe threat
given steep midlevel lapse rates and 0-6 km shear on the order of
40-50 kt. Should storms develop in this area, a localized threat for
tornadoes will occur.
...Mid-MS Valley into the Southern Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface
low and along the cold front from the eastern OK/TX Panhandle into
northwest OK and south-central KS during the late afternoon and
evening. Strong height falls and cooling temperatures aloft will
result in steep midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range.
Storms initially will pose a threat for all severe hazards,
including very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
Storms are expected to develop into a line or several bowing line
segments as stronger forcing overspread the region and the cold
front sharpens during the evening hours. Further south, convective
potential across central OK is a bit more uncertain. Storms in this
area will likely be suppressed initially from capping, and then via
a dry slot. Should a storm develop in this area however, very large
hail and tornadoes will be possible. Eventually, damaging winds will
be possible as convection associated with the cold front further
northwest tracks east/southeast across the southern Plains
Convection across the Red River Valley into central TX also is
somewhat conditional during the afternoon as capping slowly erodes
as deep ascent increases with the approaching of the trough. Some
CAMs guidance indicates a few isolated cells may develop in the warm
sector ahead of the dryline. If this occurs, much like in central
OK, very large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. More
likely though, as the cold front overtakes the dryline late in the
evening, vigorous thunderstorm development will occur across central
TX and bowing line segments will shift eastward across TX into the
ArkLaTex vicinity, posing a threat for mainly hail and wind.
However, some QLCS tornadoes also could occur given favorable shear
profiles and a very moist boundary layer.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z