Oklahoma City, OK...St. Louis, MO...Springfield, IL...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...
Dallas, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...
Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...Richmond, VA...Arlington, VA...
SPC AC 301605
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
Valid 301630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTH
Severe thunderstorms are possible in a corridor across parts of the
southern Plains northeastward toward Illinois/Indiana today and
tonight. This will include a risk for tornadoes, large hail, and
locally damaging gusts.
Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving across
eastern NM this morning, with fast southwesterly flow aloft across
all of the southern Plains. Ample moisture and instability is
present over TX/OK/AR with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s and
near dry-adiabatic mid level lapse rates. A surface boundary
extends from southeast KS into central OK and northwest TX. This
boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary through the day, as
the warm sector slowly warms into the mid/upper 70s. The result
will be a rather widespread area of substantial CAPE (MLCAPE over
3000 J/kg) and minimal inhibition from southwest MO into southern OK
and north TX.
Meanwhile, model guidance is consistent in developing a strong
southerly low-level jet over north TX and southeast OK by late
afternoon. This will enhance the low-level shear profiles (SRH
values of 200-350 ms/s2) and encourage supercell storm structures.
Given the relatively weak cap, 12z CAM solutions suggest numerous
rotating storms will occur this afternoon and evening over the ENH
risk area. These storms would pose a risk of tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging winds. If model solution are right in the widespread
nature of storm development, destructive interference between storms
may limit the potential of a more significant severe/tornado event.
Nevertheless, a strong tornado or two is possible today - mainly
across south-central into eastern OK.
It is also uncertain how far south storms will form into TX. Only a
few 12z CAMs show storms developing south of the DFW area, but
forecast soundings suggest a conditional risk of hail and damaging
winds with any storms that form in this area. Therefore have nudged
the severe risk areas slightly farther south.
Later this evening and tonight, lines and clusters of storms will
develop eastward into parts of southern MO and western AR, with a
continued risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
Behind the primary upper trough over NM, a second progressive system
is moving across northern CA and will dig into the Great Basin
today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon
over east-central NV and spread into UT. The strongest of these
cells will pose a risk of gusty winds and hail.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z