May 5, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 5 16:50:29 UTC 2019 (20190505 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190505 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190505 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 125,334 6,518,223 Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Norfolk, VA...Lincoln, NE...Chesapeake, VA...
MARGINAL 292,475 29,481,760 Jacksonville, FL...Oklahoma City, OK...Miami, FL...Wichita, KS...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190505 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 14,387 41,954 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 % 93,251 10,653,591 Virginia Beach, VA...Miami, FL...Norfolk, VA...Hialeah, FL...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190505 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 107,150 6,145,909 Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Norfolk, VA...Lincoln, NE...Chesapeake, VA...
5 % 280,060 29,514,818 Jacksonville, FL...Oklahoma City, OK...Miami, FL...Wichita, KS...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190505 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 39,726 601,435 Lubbock, TX...Dodge City, KS...Plainview, TX...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...
15 % 106,076 3,631,127 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Des Moines, IA...Amarillo, TX...
5 % 304,933 31,840,134 Jacksonville, FL...Oklahoma City, OK...Virginia Beach, VA...Miami, FL...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 051650

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 AM CDT Sun May 05 2019

   Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
   winds are most probable from west Texas into eastern Nebraska and
   southwest Iowa, and over parts of southeastern Virginia and North
   Carolina this afternoon and evening.

   ...Southern/central High Plains...
   Isolated/widely scattered supercells capable of large hail and
   eventually damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, are
   expected across a broad north-south expanse of central/southern High
   Plains. These storms are expected to develop near the dryline late
   this afternoon and east-southeastward into a moistening boundary
   layer. Moist advection east of the dryline, combined with diurnal
   heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates, should contribute to
   preconvective MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range, amidst 40-50 kt
   effective-shear. Significant/2-inch+ hail may occur from the most
   intense cores. As the low-level jet increases early this evening and
   LCLs lower, some tornado risk may exist, particularly across the
   Caprock vicinity of northwest Texas.

   ...NE/IA and vicinity...
   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead
   of the southeastward-spreading surface cold front this afternoon
   into early evening, offering damaging to severe gusts and sporadic
   large hail. Surface heating, near a moist axis characterized by 50s
   F surface dew points, should remove MLCINH and boost buoyancy to
   values favorable for strong-severe convection. Forecast soundings
   suggest peak preconvective MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg over
   southern NE to around 1000-1500 J/kg in central IA, with the
   corridor of supportive MLCAPE becoming weaker/narrower from there
   into WI. Low-level winds are forecast to remain weak, but clusters
   or bands of convection may organize and shift southeastward away
   from the frontal zone with time.

   ...NC/southern VA...
   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
   afternoon, with damaging gusts and sporadic hail possible. The
   tornado threat appears more marginal/conditional, given the lack of
   enlarged low-level hodographs amidst nearly unidirectional wind
   profiles; however storm-scale/boundary interactions and slightly
   backed surface flow just ahead of the low may support one from a
   supercell taking advantage of favorable boundary interactions.

   Aided by a shortwave trough and right-entrance region of a
   cyclonically curved jet segment, sufficient strength/duration of
   surface heating should occur to virtually eliminate MLCINH,
   fostering steep boundary-layer lapse rates and around 1000-1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE. 40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common,
   supporting some supercell potential.

   ...Florida to coastal Mid-Atlantic States...
   See Mesoscale Discussion 538 for short-term details regarding the
   severe risk across northern Florida, with locally damaging winds the
   main severe risk. South of the ongoing midday squall line/bowing
   complex across northern Florida, additional severe storms are
   expected across the central Peninsula.

   ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/05/2019

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