Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 071218
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Tue May 07 2019
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND EXTREME WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon into early
tonight across the Texas Panhandle into extreme western Oklahoma. A
couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will
all be possible.
...Southern High Plains and vicinity through tonight...
The synoptic front extends from northern MO to the northern TX
Panhandle, though the effective front is located farther south into
northern OK, as a result of outflow from overnight convection that
has mostly weakened. Cyclogenesis is expected today along the
boundary into northeast NM in advance of a midlevel trough crossing
AZ/NM, with a sharpening dryline to the south near the TX/NM border.
Mass response to the cyclogenesis will draw boundary-layer dewpoints
in the 60s northwestward into west TX and the TX Panhandle, beneath
a plume of steep (8-9 C/km) midlevel lapse rates. This will drive
moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) in the warm
sector east of the dryline, with weakening convective inhibition by
Some consolidation of the residual outflows and the synoptic front
is expected today into KS. This front and the dryline will focus
severe storm development today, with the earlier development
expected near the front across the northern TX and OK Panhandles
into southwest KS. An increase in ascent from west-to-east during
the afternoon and daytime heating/mixing in cloud breaks will weaken
the cap such that storm initiation is likely by mid afternoon along
and east of the dryline. The initial convection will remain
semi-discrete for a few hours into this evening, in an environment
increasingly favorable for right-moving supercells capable of
producing very large hail as deep-layer vertical shear increases.
An increase in low-level shear is also expected later this
afternoon/evening in the warm sector, with effective SRH likely in
excess of 200 m2/s2. The semi-discrete storm mode with increasing
low-level shear in a sufficiently moist environment will support
tornadic supercells, with the potential for a couple of strong
Upscale growth into clusters and eventually a more extensive QLCS is
expected by late evening into the overnight hours from northwest TX
into western/central OK and southern KS. Damaging winds will become
a more substantial threat will embedded supercells/bowing segments
tonight, though large hail will remain possible. A couple of
tornadoes and/or severe gusts may also occur with circulations
embedded within the QLCS.
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