May 7, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 7 19:41:23 UTC 2019 (20190507 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190507 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Graphic
20190507 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 22,082 370,534 Amarillo, TX...Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...Canyon, TX...
ENHANCED 61,386 1,257,879 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...Odessa, TX...Enid, OK...
SLIGHT 100,453 4,393,179 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...
MARGINAL 275,359 32,738,996 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190507 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 27,848 554,951 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Plainview, TX...Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...
15 % 11,763 295,792 Amarillo, TX...Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...Canyon, TX...
10 % 30,149 419,431 Lubbock, TX...Plainview, TX...Dumas, TX...Woodward, OK...Elk City, OK...
5 % 84,617 3,459,129 Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
2 % 110,810 6,085,872 Denver, CO...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190507 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 27,615 210,071 Altus, OK...Woodward, OK...Vernon, TX...Elk City, OK...Clinton, OK...
45 % 14,777 97,979 Woodward, OK...Elk City, OK...
30 % 54,151 823,947 Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...Odessa, TX...Enid, OK...Big Spring, TX...
15 % 114,921 5,085,083 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...
5 % 245,196 32,446,149 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190507 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 67,956 1,267,709 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Big Spring, TX...
45 % 21,868 369,722 Amarillo, TX...Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...Canyon, TX...
30 % 31,809 761,151 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...
15 % 94,746 2,014,866 Wichita, KS...Abilene, TX...Lawton, OK...San Angelo, TX...Enid, OK...
5 % 268,290 27,552,870 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
   SPC AC 071941

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019

   Valid 072000Z - 081200Z


   Severe thunderstorms are likely into tonight, particularly across
   the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. A couple of strong
   tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.

   ...20z Update -- Central/Southern Plains Vicinity...

   Overall, updates to the ongoing outlook are minimal. The 10 percent
   tornado probability has been expanded a bit to the northeast to
   cover most of northwest OK and a small portion of south-central KS. 
   The surface boundary has lifted northward across this area and
   forecast RAP soundings and modified 17z RAOB from LMN suggest a
   favorable tornado environment. Latest HRRR guidance develops
   discrete cells in this vicinity by 23z and latest surface analysis
   shows inhibition has largely eroded. Visible satellite imagery
   continues to show agitated CU in this area as well and as stronger
   ascent overspreads the region, additional cells may develop ahead of
   the expected main line of storms further west over the TX
   Panhandle/western OK.

   The Marginal risk/2 percent tornado area has been expanded northward
   toward Denver to account for a low-end risk for land spouts as the
   Denver cyclone has become better-defined. Limited surface heating
   and cloud cover will limit greater severe potential this far north,
   but a few high-based cells and favorable low level shear could
   result in a couple of land spouts through early evening. 

   Otherwise, ongoing forecast remains on track. Reference MCDs 569,
   570 and 571 for more details.

   ..Leitman.. 05/07/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 07 2019/

   ...Southern Plains this afternoon and tonight...
   An upper low over Arizona, with a preceding cyclonically curved belt
   (50+ kt at 500 mb) of strengthening southwesterly winds aloft, will
   spread east-northeasterly toward the southern High Plains through
   tonight. A leading belt of forcing for ascent, as subtly evidenced
   per water vapor imagery, appears to be crossing New Mexico late this
   morning with a related increase in thunderstorms from northeast New
   Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. A moist environment
   exists early today across the region, with northward-advecting 12Z
   subjectively analyzed 12-16C 850 mb dewpoints (mean-mixing ratios
   >12g/kg) extending from the Lower Rio Grande vicinity of South Texas
   into the Texas South Plains. 

   Regarding the possibility of an increasing severe risk early this
   afternoon in vicinity of the surface front, see Mesoscale Discussion
   567. Farther south, initial intense surface-based supercell
   development will become more likely by around mid-afternoon across
   the Texas Panhandle near and just south of a surface low/dryline and
   arcing front-related triple point. Pending the disposition of
   ongoing early-day storms, additional low-level upslope-aided
   supercellular development could also occur this afternoon across the
   Raton Meso vicinity of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado.
   Across the Texas Panhandle into the Texas South Plains, 35-40 kt of
   effective shear in conjunction with very steep mid-level lapse rates
   and 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will support initial supercells capable of
   very large hail and some tornado risk. 

   A steady increase in low-level shear/SRH is likely to occur late
   this afternoon and especially early this evening in the warm sector,
   with effective SRH likely climbing in excess of 200 m2/s2. The
   semi-discrete storm mode, at least for a time, along with increasing
   low-level shear is likely to support an increase in tornado risk by
   early evening, with the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes.

   Upscale growth into clusters and eventually a more extensive QLCS is
   expected into mid/late evening and the overnight hours from
   northwest Texas into western/central Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
   Damaging winds will become a more substantial threat will embedded
   supercells/bowing segments tonight, though large hail will remain
   possible. A couple of tornadoes and/or severe gusts may also occur
   with circulations embedded within the QLCS.