The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and tonight....
the latest public statement about this event. View What is a Watch? clip.
Lubbock, TX...Plainview, TX...Dumas, TX...Woodward, OK...Elk City, OK...
Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
Denver, CO...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Altus, OK...Woodward, OK...Vernon, TX...Elk City, OK...Clinton, OK...
SPC AC 071941
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
Severe thunderstorms are likely into tonight, particularly across
the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. A couple of strong
tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.
...20z Update -- Central/Southern Plains Vicinity...
Overall, updates to the ongoing outlook are minimal. The 10 percent
tornado probability has been expanded a bit to the northeast to
cover most of northwest OK and a small portion of south-central KS.
The surface boundary has lifted northward across this area and
forecast RAP soundings and modified 17z RAOB from LMN suggest a
favorable tornado environment. Latest HRRR guidance develops
discrete cells in this vicinity by 23z and latest surface analysis
shows inhibition has largely eroded. Visible satellite imagery
continues to show agitated CU in this area as well and as stronger
ascent overspreads the region, additional cells may develop ahead of
the expected main line of storms further west over the TX
The Marginal risk/2 percent tornado area has been expanded northward
toward Denver to account for a low-end risk for land spouts as the
Denver cyclone has become better-defined. Limited surface heating
and cloud cover will limit greater severe potential this far north,
but a few high-based cells and favorable low level shear could
result in a couple of land spouts through early evening.
Otherwise, ongoing forecast remains on track. Reference MCDs 569,
570 and 571 for more details.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 07 2019/
...Southern Plains this afternoon and tonight...
An upper low over Arizona, with a preceding cyclonically curved belt
(50+ kt at 500 mb) of strengthening southwesterly winds aloft, will
spread east-northeasterly toward the southern High Plains through
tonight. A leading belt of forcing for ascent, as subtly evidenced
per water vapor imagery, appears to be crossing New Mexico late this
morning with a related increase in thunderstorms from northeast New
Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. A moist environment
exists early today across the region, with northward-advecting 12Z
subjectively analyzed 12-16C 850 mb dewpoints (mean-mixing ratios
>12g/kg) extending from the Lower Rio Grande vicinity of South Texas
into the Texas South Plains.
Regarding the possibility of an increasing severe risk early this
afternoon in vicinity of the surface front, see Mesoscale Discussion
567. Farther south, initial intense surface-based supercell
development will become more likely by around mid-afternoon across
the Texas Panhandle near and just south of a surface low/dryline and
arcing front-related triple point. Pending the disposition of
ongoing early-day storms, additional low-level upslope-aided
supercellular development could also occur this afternoon across the
Raton Meso vicinity of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado.
Across the Texas Panhandle into the Texas South Plains, 35-40 kt of
effective shear in conjunction with very steep mid-level lapse rates
and 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will support initial supercells capable of
very large hail and some tornado risk.
A steady increase in low-level shear/SRH is likely to occur late
this afternoon and especially early this evening in the warm sector,
with effective SRH likely climbing in excess of 200 m2/s2. The
semi-discrete storm mode, at least for a time, along with increasing
low-level shear is likely to support an increase in tornado risk by
early evening, with the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes.
Upscale growth into clusters and eventually a more extensive QLCS is
expected into mid/late evening and the overnight hours from
northwest Texas into western/central Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Damaging winds will become a more substantial threat will embedded
supercells/bowing segments tonight, though large hail will remain
possible. A couple of tornadoes and/or severe gusts may also occur
with circulations embedded within the QLCS.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z