Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
San Angelo, TX...Kearney, NE...Big Spring, TX...Norfolk, NE...Mitchell, SD...
Sioux Falls, SD...Fort Collins, CO...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 171956
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF NEBRASKA AND WEST TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...
Severe storms with very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong) are expected over
Nebraska and adjacent regions this afternoon and evening. A few
severe storms capable of very large hail and damaging winds will
also affect portions of western Texas. Finally, scattered afternoon
storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds will be possible from
Ohio through the Middle Atlantic region.
Only modest adjustments have been made to previous forecast which
still appears mostly on track. Primary area of severe storms this
afternoon and early evening is expected to evolve across NE where
discrete storms will likely develop near surface low at intersection
of the front and dryline and subsequently spread northeast through
the destabilizing warm sector where MLCAPE is already near 2500
J/kg. Vertical shear from 40-45 kt will support supercells with very
large hail. Tornado threat will also increase by late afternoon into
the early evening as the low-level jet and 0-1 km hodograph size
More isolated supercells remain possible with southward extent along
the dryline this afternoon and evening. Numerous storms (some of
which will likely become severe) are expected across west through
northwest TX later tonight as the Pacific cold front intercepts the
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019/
...NE and vicinity...
Morning water vapor loop shows a powerful upper trough digging
across the Great Basin into the Rockies. Midlevel height falls and
wind speeds are increasing over the High Plains, where multiple
clusters of severe thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon and
tonight. One area of concern will be over parts of eastern CO/WY,
northern KS, much of NE, and southern SD. Storms are expected to
initiate by late afternoon over northeast CO into southwest NE and
northwest KS, with forecast hodographs favoring supercell storm
modes. Steep midlevel lapse rates and ample CAPE will encourage
hail production, with very large hail possible. The corridor of
greatest tornado threat is forecast to extend across central and
northern NE as storms track north-northeastward across a moist and
moderately unstable warm sector. Intense storms should eventually
move into parts of SD where they may become elevated, but remain
capable of large hail.
A very moist and unstable air mass is in place today over parts of
southwest TX, with dewpoints in the upper 60s extending from Del Rio
to Abilene, TX. A few intense storms are expected to form in this
region this afternoon, but should remain rather isolated. These
storms will pose a risk of very large hail and perhaps a tornado.
More widespread convection will develop after dark across the
SLGT/ENH risk area. These storms will maintain organization through
the overnight period and spread toward northwest TX and southwest
OK, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
...Mid Atlantic States...
Pockets of strong heating and sufficient CAPE will lead to scattered
thunderstorm development over parts of OH/WV this afternoon.
Moderately strong west-northwest flow aloft will help to organize
these storms and spread them toward parts of VA. Confidence in an
organized severe threat in this area is not particularly high, but
there is a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells this
afternoon and evening.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z