The SPC is forecasting ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains today and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

   SPC AC 202002

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   OKLAHOMA AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent,
   remains likely today into this evening over portions of northwest
   Texas into western and central Oklahoma.  More isolated but still
   potentially dangerous severe weather, including tornadoes and
   destructive winds and hail, remains possible in surrounding parts of
   Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas.

   ...Discussion...
   Current expectations and reasoning laid out in prior outlooks
   remains valid, with a potentially dangerous severe weather/tornado
   outbreak in its initial stages at this time.  Very few changes have
   been made to the outlook areas, with only minor tweaks to shift the
   northern fringe of the tornado risk a bit southward, due to current
   and anticipated outflow boundary location.  Otherwise, the initial
   supercell storms have developed from the Texas South Plains region
   northeast into western Oklahoma, with a rapid increase in risk
   expected over the next couple of hours, and then lasting through the
   evening and into the overnight period.

   ..Goss.. 05/20/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

   ...Southern Plains...
   A tornado outbreak is forecast to unfold this afternoon and evening
   across parts of northwest TX and western/central OK.  Moisture
   continues to stream northward across the region, with dewpoints in
   the 70s yielding very high afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-5000
   J/kg.  Meanwhile, shear profiles are also rapidly increasing as a
   50-60 knot southerly low-level jet strenghens across the area.  This
   is leading to a rare combination of extreme instability and large
   hodographs as depicted on forecast soundings throughout the region.

   Given the weak capping inversion, strong low-level theta-e
   advection, and approaching large-scale forcing, all signs point to
   the development of numerous intense supercells this afternoon across
   the MDT and HIGH risk areas.  Any storm that persists in this
   environment will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail,
   and damaging winds.  The corridor of greatest concern, including a
   threat of long-track and potentially violent tornadoes, will extend
   from the southeast TX Panhandle into western and central Oklahoma.

   Multiple rounds of severe storms are expected to affect these areas,
   with new storms forming this evening over west TX and spreading
   across north TX and much of OK overnight.  These storms will
   maintain a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
   tornadoes through the night in some areas.

   ...Northeast States...
   Relatively strong heating is occurring over New England and eastern
   NY, where a moist and moderately unstable air mass is present. 
   Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this area,
   and spread eastward toward the New England coast during the late
   afternoon.  Steepening low level lapse rates and westerly flow aloft
   will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and some hail in the
   stronger cells.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z