Dodge City, KS...Altus, OK...Hereford, TX...Dumas, TX...Elk City, OK...
Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Wichita, KS...Enid, OK...Hutchinson, KS...Dodge City, KS...Altus, OK...
Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...
SPC AC 251948
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight from the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western/northern Oklahoma and
Kansas. Other severe storms are expected across the upper Ohio River
Valley and Allegheny Plateau, and possibly other portions of the
Minor changes have been made to 1630z outlook, namely to extend
higher severe probs across northern MO into western IL. While
short-term subsidence is currently noted across the Midwest in the
wake of OH Valley short-wave trough, buoyancy is expected to develop
northeast across MO into IL into the late afternoon. With time
convection should develop along this corridor, possibly similar to
latest CAMs. Given the strength of the shear across this region,
some severe threat is expected with this activity. For these
reasons, SLGT Risk has been extended into the Mid-MS Valley.
Elsewhere, expanding cluster of thunderstorms is spreading northeast
across the TX Panhandle. Other supercells should evolve with time
and this later activity could pose more of a tornado risk, along
with very large hail.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019/
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving rapidly eastward across IL. Strong heating is occurring
ahead of this feature across much of IN/OH. Surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s and afternoon high temperatures well into the 80s will
yield a corridor of MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Present
indications are that thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon
across central IN and track into much of OH. Meanwhile, more
isolated strong storms will form across parts of western NY/PA.
Strong flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a risk of
damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells across this region today.
A few storms may also become supercells with a risk of hail or
perhaps a tornado.
Fast southwesterly flow aloft persists across west TX into adjacent
parts of OK/KS today, with only subtle large-scale forcing
mechanisms noted. One such feature is apparent in water vapor
imagery near the Big Bend region. This shortwave trough will affect
west TX by mid afternoon. Ample low level moisture is in place
across this area with dewpoints in the mid 60s as far west as
eastern NM. Current indications are that storms will initially form
near the diffuse dryline along the NM/TX border, with other activity
developing northeastward into parts of southwest KS through the
afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate that supercell structures
will be the prominent mode - at least initially. Very large hail
and damaging wind gusts are the main risks. This evening, the risk
of tornadoes is expected to increase as the low level jet
strengthens somewhat over the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK.
Storms will spread east-northeastward across much of KS this
evening, and into parts of MO tonight. These storms will maintain a
risk of hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Northern Great Basin...
A strong upper trough is present today over northern CA and western
NV, with a shortwave trough rotating northeastward across NV.
Rather fast flow aloft extends across much of the Great Basin, with
scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected. Several 12z CAM
solutions indicate a risk of a few stronger updrafts tracking from
northern UT into parts of southeast ID and western WY. Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient CAPE above inverted-v profiles -
favorable for gusty/damaging wind gusts. CAM guidance also suggests
a few bowing structures are possible.
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