May 26, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 26 12:56:18 UTC 2019 (20190526 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190526 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Graphic
20190526 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 40,918 551,466 Amarillo, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...
ENHANCED 74,212 740,910 Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Clovis, NM...Kearney, NE...Hastings, NE...
SLIGHT 267,527 38,415,131 Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...
MARGINAL 248,079 21,792,339 Indianapolis, IN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190526 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 53,127 625,528 Amarillo, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...
15 % 23,256 183,998 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Guymon, OK...
10 % 33,822 465,701 Amarillo, TX...Hays, KS...Pampa, TX...Hereford, TX...Dumas, TX...
5 % 51,828 431,913 Salina, KS...Kearney, NE...Hastings, NE...Plainview, TX...Great Bend, KS...
2 % 89,183 5,337,929 Denver, CO...Omaha, NE...Aurora, CO...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190526 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
45 % 12,454 123,061 Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...
30 % 84,106 1,046,180 Amarillo, TX...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...
15 % 259,114 37,522,922 Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Wichita, KS...
5 % 239,937 21,935,976 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190526 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 91,780 1,239,834 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Garden City, KS...
45 % 39,461 547,126 Amarillo, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...
30 % 38,912 259,516 Clovis, NM...Plainview, TX...Hereford, TX...Portales, NM...Lamar, CO...
15 % 240,165 34,909,741 Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...
5 % 267,826 21,894,373 Indianapolis, IN...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Pittsburgh, PA...
   SPC AC 261256

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Valid 261300Z - 271200Z



   Severe thunderstorms are likely today into tonight across much of
   the central Plains and southern High Plains, with all aspects of
   severe weather expected. Additional severe thunderstorms are
   possible across the lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coast,
   accompanied by a risk for severe wind and hail.

   ...Central Plains/southern High Plains...
   A Moderate Risk has been introduced for the region with an eastward
   expansion of the Enhanced Risk. Large hail and several tornadoes,
   possibly a couple strong, are expected particularly from mid/late
   afternoon through early/mid evening, with the damaging wind risk
   also increasing this evening as storms progress east-northeastward.

   A readily evident shortwave trough/speed max per water vapor imagery
   centered over northern Baja Mexico early this morning will quickly
   eject northeastward with this lead shortwave trough taking on an
   increasingly negative tilt as it reaches the south-central High
   Plains by early evening. This will be in tandem with increasingly
   strong southwesterly mid-level winds (45-60 kt in the 700-500 mb
   layer). After multiple days of semi-extensive convection and
   multiple sub-regional areas of more notable overturning,
   strengthening southwesterly trajectories via southwest U.S./northern
   Mexico will lead to a reestablishment and broadening of
   northeastward-advancing elevated mixed layer across the
   central/southern High Plains today.

   Moisture return to the deepening surface trough across the central
   High Plains is already underway beneath north/northeastward
   advecting warm elevated mixed-layer air. Models indicate that this
   will contribute to moderate to large CAPE across much of the High
   Plains, and into the warm sector of the developing cyclone across
   the central Plains.

   There will likely be a corridor of moderate to strong boundary layer
   destabilization across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into eastern
   Colorado by mid to late afternoon, which will be sufficient to
   support propagation of thunderstorm activity off the Rockies into
   the High Plains. In the presence of strengthening shear, the
   environment is expected to become conducive to intense supercells
   with potential for large to very large hail. Although low-level
   hodographs may initially be modest in length and curvature, a few
   tornadoes appear likely, particularly from the Colorado/Kansas
   border area eastward along an effective front across western Kansas,
   as well as southward into the Panhandle region.

   Low-to-mid-tropospheric winds, particularly within the lowest 3-4 km
   AGL, are likely to notably increase this evening. Various global
   guidance suggests a steady strengthening of 700 mb winds (50+ kt)
   from the Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma across much of Kansas.
   Pending convective mode, this could increase the tornado threat
   early this evening, while also contributing to upscale growth into
   one or more forward-propagating clusters with a heightened damaging
   wind risk, most probable across Kansas/southern Nebraska, but
   perhaps also the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.

   ...Northern High Plains...
   Isolated/widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail
   and locally strong winds are expected across the region particularly
   late this afternoon through evening, with upwards of 30-40 kt
   effective shear and moderate buoyancy supportive of a combination of
   supercells and multicells.

   ...Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast...
   An eastward-moving MCS/MCV will continue to cross the upper Ohio
   Valley this morning. This feature may help to focus intensifying
   development downstream by afternoon. Otherwise, models indicate that
   seasonably high boundary layer moisture content ahead of the
   southward advancing front will become characterized by moderate CAPE
   by this afternoon. This will support potential for organizing
   clusters of thunderstorm activity, aided by forcing and shear
   associated with the perturbations progressing around the northern
   periphery of the subtropical ridge. Flow including 30-40+ kt in the
   700-500 mb layer may be sufficient to support occasional isolated
   supercells, but severe hail and wind appear the primary hazards in
   the presence of generally weak low-level hodographs.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/26/2019