Jun 8, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 8 16:29:09 UTC 2019 (20190608 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190608 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190608 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 91,408 1,051,779 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Grand Island, NE...Moorhead, MN...Kearney, NE...
MARGINAL 283,296 18,179,700 Jacksonville, FL...Wichita, KS...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190608 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 77,811 784,538 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...North Platte, NE...Hays, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190608 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 91,880 1,047,163 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Grand Island, NE...Moorhead, MN...Kearney, NE...
5 % 283,841 18,245,095 Jacksonville, FL...Wichita, KS...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190608 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 20,119 85,347 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
15 % 74,296 787,524 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...
5 % 208,500 3,683,402 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
   SPC AC 081629

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019

   Valid 081630Z - 091200Z


   The greatest potential for severe storms will be over parts of the
   central Great Plains and Red River of the North area, with large
   hail and severe gusts expected.

   ...Eastern ND/northwestern MN this afternoon...
   A pronounced northern stream shortwave trough will continue to
   progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains
   through Sunday morning.  An associated surface cold front will
   likewise move eastward across the Dakotas into MN.  A narrow moist
   corridor east of the cold front extends northward from the central
   Plains to the northern Plains, where boundary-layer dewpoints are in
   the 60-65 F range this morning.  Surface heating in cloud breaks,
   low-level ascent along the front, and a remnant MCV moving
   north-northeastward across eastern SD will help focus thunderstorm
   development in a broken band along the front this afternoon.  Given
   messy observed wind profiles/hodographs and that the stronger flow
   aloft tends to lag the surface cold front, a mix of multicell
   clusters and marginal supercells will support threats for damaging
   winds and large hail this afternoon. 

   ...Central High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
   Lee cyclogenesis is expected today across eastern CO at the
   intersection of the cold front and lee trough, with faster
   southeastward motion of the front expected overnight.  This area
   will be along the southern fringe of the stronger mid-upper flow
   with the northern Rockies trough.  Deep-layer vertical shear will be
   sufficient for a couple of supercells near the triple point and a
   little northward along the front, with very large hail the main
   threat with the more discrete storms this afternoon/evening.  

   Overnight, the potential exists for storms to grow upscale into an
   MCS in the vicinity of northwest KS, where the surging cold front
   intersects a developing nocturnal low-level jet and the corridor of
   strongest buoyancy.  The convection should subsequently move
   southeastward toward central KS by the end of the period.  Lingering
   steep midlevel lapse rates and strong downdraft potential suggest
   the possibility of a corridor of damaging winds with this overnight
   convection.  However, uncertainty is high enough regarding MCS
   track/intensity and efficiency of the storms to produce damaging
   winds to hold off on introducing greater (30%) wind probabilities in
   this update. 

   ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening...
   Forcing for ascent will generally remain weak along a sharpening
   dryline this afternoon from southwest KS southward near the TX/NM
   border into southwest TX.  As temperatures warm into the 90s,
   convective inhibition will weaken in a narrow zone along the
   dryline, such that isolated storm development will be possible.  The
   deeply mixed environment with steep lapse rates and effective bulk
   shear of 30-35 kt will favor high-based supercells capable of
   producing isolated large hail and damaging gusts, prior to the
   storms weakening late evening.

   ...North FL/GA area this afternoon...
   A midlevel low over the TN Valley will move little as weak embedded
   speed maxima rotate around the southern and eastern periphery of the
   low.  Convection this morning is widespread along and off the
   northeast Gulf coast, and prior convection has left a residual cold
   pool across north FL.  There will be a window of opportunity for a
   few strong storms this afternoon in the zone of cloud breaks across
   west central and central GA, where moderate buoyancy and 25-30 kt
   south-southwesterly low-midlevel flow may support storms capable of
   producing isolated strong outflow gusts.  The widespread convection
   casts doubt on the degree of recovery across the FL Panhandle into
   north FL and south GA.

   ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 06/08/2019