Jun 13, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 13 05:56:56 UTC 2019 (20190613 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190613 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190613 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 21,738 352,993 Amarillo, TX...Pampa, TX...Dumas, TX...Borger, TX...Canyon, TX...
MARGINAL 312,237 28,978,163 Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Miami, FL...Pittsburgh, PA...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190613 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190613 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 20,108 352,160 Amarillo, TX...Pampa, TX...Dumas, TX...Borger, TX...Canyon, TX...
5 % 301,882 28,944,672 Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Miami, FL...Pittsburgh, PA...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190613 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 15,881 115,582 Dumas, TX...
5 % 126,552 1,276,415 Amarillo, TX...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Garden City, KS...
   SPC AC 130556

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
   NM...TX PANHANDLE...A SMALL PORTION OF THE OK PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The primary severe thunderstorm threat is expected to be over
   northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and
   evening. Other isolated severe storms are possible near the
   Allegheny Mountains and Blue Ridge, the east coast of Florida, and
   the northern Great Basin.

   ...Southern/Central High Plains...
   Low-level moisture will begin to return to a larger portion of the
   central/southern High Plains today, as a surface trough strengthens
   in the lee of the Rockies. Dewpoints into the 50s F are expected
   east of the surface trough across the southern High Plains by
   afternoon, while dewpoints of 45-50 F are likely into the central
   High Plains. Steep midlevel lapse rates combined with the increased
   low-level moisture should result in moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
   generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg range) by peak heating. Meanwhile,
   south-southeasterly low-level flow veering to moderate
   west-northwesterly flow aloft will result in sufficient effective
   shear (35-45 kt) to support an organized severe thunderstorm threat.
   While large-scale ascent may be somewhat nebulous during the day,
   especially with southward extent, strong heating/mixing and
   sufficient convergence near the dryline should support scattered
   thunderstorm development by late afternoon across much of the
   central/southern High Plains. 

   A few supercells will be possible with initial thunderstorm
   development, with an attendant risk of large hail and locally severe
   wind gusts. As the low-level jet increases this evening, upscale
   growth into one or more clusters is possible, with a corresponding
   downstream increase in the severe wind threat. The best forecast
   overlap of shear and instability, and also the best signal in recent
   CAM guidance, lies over northeast NM into the TX Panhandle, and a
   Slight Risk has been introduced for this area, though at least
   isolated severe hail/wind will be possible across the remainder of
   the central/southern High Plains into the evening.

   ...Allegheny Mountains/Blue Ridge and Vicinity...
   A deep upper trough will move northeastward into New England today.
   In conjunction with the trough, an occluding cyclone will move into
   Ontario, while a coastal low will move from the Mid Atlantic region
   toward downeast Maine by Friday morning. While the richest low-level
   moisture will be confined near the coast and offshore, modest
   instability may develop ahead of a cold front from the Allegheny
   Plateau into portions of the Mid Atlantic. While convection across
   this region will likely be relatively low-topped, sufficient
   low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated
   damaging wind this afternoon into the early evening. 

   ...Northern Great Basin...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the early
   evening ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough over the Great Basin.
   While buoyancy will likely remain rather weak, steep low/midlevel
   lapse rates will support a threat of isolated severe wind gusts and
   perhaps some marginally severe hail with the strongest cells. 

   ...Florida Atlantic Coast...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the Florida
   Peninsula this afternoon. While midlevel southwesterly flow will
   remain rather modest across the area, effective shear will be
   somewhat enhanced near the sea breeze across the eastern portion of
   the peninsula, supporting some organized structures capable of
   isolated damaging wind and perhaps some small hail.

   ..Dean/Bentley.. 06/13/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z