Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Lubbock, TX...Alamogordo, NM...Hobbs, NM...Garden City, KS...Plainview, TX...
SPC AC 131953
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms today should be
over parts of the south-central High Plains, with damaging wind and
Only 2 changes were made to the outlook this update.
1) Removed low-wind probabilities over the central/southern FL
Peninsula due mostly to the stabilizing influence of convective
overturning on the boundary layer.
2) Minor eastward adjustment of the western edge of the 5-percent
wind probabilities over the central Appalachians.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/
...Southern High Plains this afternoon into early tonight...
Low-level moisture is returning northward from southwest TX into
eastern NM, and low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints should reach as
far north as the Raton Mesa by mid-late afternoon. Though only
subtle/embedded speed maxima may traverse the southern Rockies to
the southern High Plains, surface heating and deep mixing should
support thunderstorm development this afternoon in the immediate lee
of the Raton Mesa, as well as southward across NM to the Sacramento
Mountains. Inverted-v profiles with steep low-midlevel lapse rates
and effective bulk shear around 40 kt will support high-based
supercells capable of producing large hail the first few hours after
initiation. Some clustering of storms is possible from northeast NM
into the TX Panhandle this evening into early tonight, and
convection could be maintained by (and develop into) a 30-40 kt
southerly low-level jet along the corridor of richer low-level
...East central/southeast FL this afternoon...
Outflow with pre-frontal convection has sagged southward into
central FL as of midday, and to its south, diurnal/sea breeze
convection is developing across the southern and western parts of
the peninsula. Given weak deep-layer southwesterly flow, convection
should spread toward the Atlantic coast this afternoon, with
multiple storm/boundary interactions possible. The strongest storms
could produce isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts.
...Central Appalachians/northern Mid Atlantic through this
A pronounced midlevel trough will continue eastward from the OH
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/NY by tonight. A surface cyclone will
move northeastward across southwestern ON, as an associated cold
front moves eastward from OH to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late
tonight. The magnitude of low-level moisture is limited in advance
of the cold front as a result of a secondary low just off the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts now, and 12z soundings
revealed modest midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. These factors
will tend to limit pre-frontal buoyancy and updraft intensity.
However, some increase in deep-layer flow/shear is expected with
eastward progress of the midlevel trough, and isolated
strong/damaging outflow gusts cannot be ruled out with stronger
storms along and in advance of the cold front.
...Northern Great Basin and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A series of subtle/low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will
continue to move slowly eastward over the northern Great Basin
through this evening. Low-midlevel moisture is sufficient for at
least weak surface-based buoyancy, once afternoon temperatures warm
well into the 70s/80s. Resultant inverted-v profiles will favor
strong outflow gusts with the more intense/persistent storms, within
a broader corridor of expected thunderstorm development across the
northern Great Basin.
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