SPC AC 150546

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central
   Great Plains today.  Large to very large hail and severe gusts are
   forecast with the stronger storms.

   ...Central and northern Great Plains...
   A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern MT
   this morning to the mid-upper MS Valley by daybreak Friday.  A weak
   area of low pressure will develop over western KS while a cold front
   moves southeastward across the western Dakotas during the day.  An
   elevated cluster of thunderstorms is possible over the central Great
   Plains associated with a warm advection regime before this activity
   weakens by the late morning.  Considerable uncertainty is apparent
   and partially attributed to the evolution of storms during the
   morning.  An outflow boundary associated with this early day
   convection may serve as a focus for additional storms by late
   afternoon from NE into northern KS.  Elongated hodographs would
   favor supercells with large to very large hail.  Isolated storms are
   forecast farther southwest into southern KS into the TX Panhandle
   with a wind/hail risk with the sustained/strong storms.  

   Farther north over the Dakotas and Wyoming into western NE, diurnal
   storms are forecast to develop along the front over the Dakotas and
   in a post-frontal area over WY.  Hail/wind are possible with this
   activity.  

   ...Upper Ohio Valley...
   At the surface, a front will advance eastward across upper Ohio
   Valley with moderate destabilization expected by afternoon. 
   Although lapse rates are not expected to be that steep, forecast
   soundings do show 0-6 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range.  A
   few marginally severe storms may develop in the late afternoon with
   potential for strong wind gusts and hail.

   ...Coastal Carolinas...
   Weak mid-level troughing will slowly move east across the southern
   Appalachians.  A cold front and a sea breeze front will serve as
   foci for thunderstorm development during the midday through the
   early evening.  A reservoir of rich low-level moisture (low-middle
   70s dewpoints) will remain over the coastal plain and combine with
   strong heating to yield moderate destabilization.  Strong gusts
   (45-55mph, locally higher) occurring in pockets associated with wet
   microbursts will be capable of isolated wind damage.  Storms will
   weaken by the early evening and dissipate soon after sunset.

   ..Smith/Cook.. 08/15/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z