New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...
SPC AC 021730
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
Severe storms with wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will
be possible on Sunday from the central Gulf Coast east-northeastward
into western South Carolina.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/Georgia/South
A fast moving shortwave trough will approach the Southeast on
Sunday. At the surface, a low is forecast to move across northern
parts of the central Gulf Coast states. A trailing cold front should
be located from southern Mississippi into south-central Alabama by
afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will
develop along the front in the morning and early afternoon as the
front advances southeastward. Surface winds parallel to the front
combined with strong low-level convergence will be favorable for
squall-line development. Additional thunderstorms should develop
eastward across the moist sector. This activity should organize into
a MCS and move east-southeastward across the region during the
afternoon and early evening.
As the shortwave trough moves across the lower Mississippi Valley on
Sunday, a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet will move across the Tennessee
Valley. The southeastern edge of this feature will enhance ascent
and aid strong deep-layer shear profiles. Due to this, a wind damage
threat should develop within the squall-line by midday. At
low-levels, a 40 to 60 kt jet is forecast to move eastward across
south-central Alabama during the afternoon. Discrete supercells that
form over the warm sector near and to the southwest of the low-level
jet max will have favorable shear profiles for tornadoes. The
number of tornadoes that develop will be dependent upon how many
discrete cells form out ahead of the cold front. If a cluster of
discrete cells can become scattered across the area with stronger
instability, then there could be a small cluster of tornadoes. The
greatest potential for tornadoes is currently forecast from just
north of Mobile east-northeastward to the east of Columbus, Georgia.
An enhanced has been added along this corridor where a potential
for strong tornadoes will exist. In addition to tornadoes, wind
damage and isolated large hail will also be possible with
supercells. A wind damage threat should also be concentrated along
the squall-line to the west. The squall-line should progress
eastward across the southern Gulf Coast States and into Georgia
during the late afternoon and early evening.
Further to the northeast, the low-level jet is forecast to move into
South Carolina by early evening. Although instability will be weaker
there, a potential for supercells will still exist due the favorable
shear profiles. For this reason, the slight risk area has been
expanded into western South Carolina. Isolated wind damage will be
possible along this part of the front.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 15% - Slight
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z