Mar 2, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 2 17:30:15 UTC 2019 (20190302 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190302 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190302 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 16,843 816,986 Columbus, GA...Phenix City, AL...Enterprise, AL...Americus, GA...Ozark, AL...
SLIGHT 90,353 10,512,529 Atlanta, GA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Macon, GA...
MARGINAL 110,067 12,976,421 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190302 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 16,980 820,008 Columbus, GA...Phenix City, AL...Enterprise, AL...Americus, GA...Ozark, AL...
30 % 16,902 807,743 Columbus, GA...Phenix City, AL...Enterprise, AL...Americus, GA...Ozark, AL...
15 % 90,391 10,553,510 Atlanta, GA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Macon, GA...
5 % 109,881 12,972,898 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...
   SPC AC 021730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2019

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
   GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will
   be possible on Sunday from the central Gulf Coast east-northeastward
   into western South Carolina.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/Georgia/South
   Carolina...
   A fast moving shortwave trough will approach the Southeast on
   Sunday. At the surface, a low is forecast to move across northern
   parts of the central Gulf Coast states. A trailing cold front should
   be located from southern Mississippi into south-central Alabama by
   afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will
   develop along the front in the morning and early afternoon as the
   front advances southeastward. Surface winds parallel to the front
   combined with strong low-level convergence will be favorable for
   squall-line development. Additional thunderstorms should develop
   eastward across the moist sector. This activity should organize into
   a MCS and move east-southeastward across the region during the
   afternoon and early evening.

   As the shortwave trough moves across the lower Mississippi Valley on
   Sunday, a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet will move across the Tennessee
   Valley. The southeastern edge of this feature will enhance ascent
   and aid strong deep-layer shear profiles. Due to this, a wind damage
   threat should develop within the squall-line by midday.  At
   low-levels, a 40 to 60 kt jet is forecast to move eastward across
   south-central Alabama during the afternoon. Discrete supercells that
   form over the warm sector near and to the southwest of the low-level
   jet max will have favorable shear profiles for tornadoes.  The
   number of tornadoes that develop will be dependent upon how many
   discrete cells form out ahead of the cold front. If a cluster of
   discrete cells can become scattered across the area with stronger
   instability, then there could be a small cluster of tornadoes. The
   greatest potential for tornadoes is currently forecast from just
   north of Mobile east-northeastward to the east of Columbus, Georgia.
    An enhanced has been added along this corridor where a potential
   for strong tornadoes will exist. In addition to tornadoes, wind
   damage and isolated large hail will also be possible with
   supercells. A wind damage threat should also be concentrated along
   the squall-line to the west.  The squall-line should progress
   eastward across the southern Gulf Coast States and into Georgia
   during the late afternoon and early evening.

   Further to the northeast, the low-level jet is forecast to move into
   South Carolina by early evening. Although instability will be weaker
   there, a potential for supercells will still exist due the favorable
   shear profiles. For this reason, the slight risk area has been
   expanded into western South Carolina. Isolated wind damage will be
   possible along this part of the front.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  10% SIG - Enhanced
   Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Broyles.. 03/02/2019

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