May 16, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 16 05:29:26 UTC 2019 (20190516 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190516 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190516 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 67,691 1,093,769 Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Grand Island, NE...
SLIGHT 230,662 4,253,401 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...
MARGINAL 269,055 35,232,359 Chicago, IL...Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190516 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 175,814 2,395,580 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...
30 % 67,067 1,078,805 Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Grand Island, NE...
15 % 233,506 4,350,855 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...
5 % 266,887 34,948,175 Chicago, IL...Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 160529

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2019

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


   Severe storms are expected across parts of the Plains, mainly from
   Nebraska southward into west Texas. Very large hail and a few
   tornadoes are possible. Scattered severe hail is also possible
   across southern South Dakota, as well as across parts of Ohio and
   West Virginia.

   Low pressure will move from northeast CO across NE as an upper
   trough moves into the Plains, providing strengthening wind fields
   over a moist and unstable air mass. A dryline will extend south from
   the low across the length of the High Plains, with widespread mid
   60s F dewpoints. East of the low, a stationary front will extend
   from IA across northern IL/IN/OH/PA, with a corridor of instability
   supporting isolated strong storms. The greatest severe threat will
   be centered over NE near the low and front, and across west TX along
   the dryline.

   ...Northern Plains area...
   Easterly winds just north of the stationary front will shunt
   moisture westward into CO and WY, with supercells producing damaging
   hail by 21Z. A tornado is possible as well. Farther east, more
   substantial instability will develop along the front, with MLCAPE of
   2000-3000 J/kg. Significant elevated instability will exist north of
   the front as well into southern SD, southwest MN and IA. Supercells
   are expected near the dryline/stationary front intersection
   southwest NE with very large hail expected and a few tornadoes.
   Numerous storms will develop east along the front, and large
   elevated hail is possible north of the boundary. Damaging winds may
   develop along and south of the front during the evening.

   ...Much of west TX...
   Height falls will occur throughout the period across the southern
   Plains, with a sharp dryline across the eastern OK/TX Panhandles
   into southwest TX. Mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints will exist
   along with strong heating resulting in MLCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. While
   a capping inversion will exist east of the dryline, heating will mix
   out profiles, and convergence will support development during the
   late afternoon and through the evening when the cold front moves
   into west TX. Supercells initially are likely with very large hail
   and a few tornadoes. Linear storms, possibly with embedded
   supercells, are then likely overnight as the cold front overtakes
   the storms.

   ...TX/OK Panhandles into western KS...
   Strong instability and shear will exist along the length of the
   dryline Friday afternoon, with strong heating and steepening lapse
   rates to the west. Forecast soundings indicate instability and wind
   profiles to support supercells producing very large hail.
   Strengthening 850 mb winds will also enhance shear profiles, and
   tornadoes are conditionally possible. However, models continue to
   show minimal precipitation along this portion of the dryline, with
   substantial downward motion indicated at 700 mb (a multi-day trend).
   As a result, the forecast calls for only isolated activity, but
   conditionally with significant severe potential.

   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

   ..Jewell.. 05/16/2019