Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Grand Island, NE...
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...
Chicago, IL...Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
SPC AC 160529
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND WEST TEXAS...
Severe storms are expected across parts of the Plains, mainly from
Nebraska southward into west Texas. Very large hail and a few
tornadoes are possible. Scattered severe hail is also possible
across southern South Dakota, as well as across parts of Ohio and
Low pressure will move from northeast CO across NE as an upper
trough moves into the Plains, providing strengthening wind fields
over a moist and unstable air mass. A dryline will extend south from
the low across the length of the High Plains, with widespread mid
60s F dewpoints. East of the low, a stationary front will extend
from IA across northern IL/IN/OH/PA, with a corridor of instability
supporting isolated strong storms. The greatest severe threat will
be centered over NE near the low and front, and across west TX along
...Northern Plains area...
Easterly winds just north of the stationary front will shunt
moisture westward into CO and WY, with supercells producing damaging
hail by 21Z. A tornado is possible as well. Farther east, more
substantial instability will develop along the front, with MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg. Significant elevated instability will exist north of
the front as well into southern SD, southwest MN and IA. Supercells
are expected near the dryline/stationary front intersection
southwest NE with very large hail expected and a few tornadoes.
Numerous storms will develop east along the front, and large
elevated hail is possible north of the boundary. Damaging winds may
develop along and south of the front during the evening.
...Much of west TX...
Height falls will occur throughout the period across the southern
Plains, with a sharp dryline across the eastern OK/TX Panhandles
into southwest TX. Mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints will exist
along with strong heating resulting in MLCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. While
a capping inversion will exist east of the dryline, heating will mix
out profiles, and convergence will support development during the
late afternoon and through the evening when the cold front moves
into west TX. Supercells initially are likely with very large hail
and a few tornadoes. Linear storms, possibly with embedded
supercells, are then likely overnight as the cold front overtakes
...TX/OK Panhandles into western KS...
Strong instability and shear will exist along the length of the
dryline Friday afternoon, with strong heating and steepening lapse
rates to the west. Forecast soundings indicate instability and wind
profiles to support supercells producing very large hail.
Strengthening 850 mb winds will also enhance shear profiles, and
tornadoes are conditionally possible. However, models continue to
show minimal precipitation along this portion of the dryline, with
substantial downward motion indicated at 700 mb (a multi-day trend).
As a result, the forecast calls for only isolated activity, but
conditionally with significant severe potential.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z