May 16, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 16 17:28:14 UTC 2019 (20190516 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190516 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190516 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 68,660 1,143,499 Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Grand Island, NE...
SLIGHT 224,206 4,175,298 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...
MARGINAL 301,714 45,897,508 Chicago, IL...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190516 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 177,175 2,449,479 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...
30 % 69,151 1,138,480 Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Grand Island, NE...
15 % 224,162 4,204,724 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...
5 % 302,609 45,702,321 Chicago, IL...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Minneapolis, MN...
   SPC AC 161728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS A PART OF WEST TEXAS....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with very large hail, tornadoes (a few of which could
   be strong) and damaging wind are expected, mainly across parts of
   the Plains from Nebraska south into west Texas. A few severe storms
   with large hail and gusty winds are also possible across southern
   South Dakota, as well as across parts of Ohio through the Middle
   Atlantic.

   ...Synopsis...

   Synoptic trough will continue slowly east through the rockies
   Friday. Mid-upper jet within base of this trough will develop
   northeast, and the exit region of this feature will emerge over the
   central High Plains Friday afternoon. An upper ridge will persist
   over the upper MS Valley region, while a low-amplitude trough
   advances southeast through the Great Lakes and Northeast States. At
   the surface a lee cyclone will reside within the approaching upper
   jet exit region over northeast CO, and the dryline will mix east
   into western portions of the central and southern Plains. By 12Z a
   cold front should extend from the lower Great Lakes westward into NE
   where it will stall. Overnight, a Pacific front accompanying a
   shortwave trough will merge with the dryline across the central and
   southern Plains.

   ...Central Plains region...

   Potential exists for a significant severe event across a portion of
   NE, and a moderate risk will be considered in day 1 updates.
   However, primary uncertainty this forecast will be how far south the
   cold front advances and where it will be during peak heating, which
   will be critical in determining corridor of greatest severe threat. 
   The front should stall somewhere across central or south central NE
   before possibly retreating slowly north as a warm front. Dewpoints
   generally in the low 60s F should reside in the warm sector beneath
   very steep (7.5-8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates). This setup will
   favor strong instability with MLCAPE from 2500-3000 J/kg as the
   boundary layer warms. However, given warm air at the base of the
   elevated mixed layer, the warm sector will likely remained capped
   through at least the first half of the day. Elevated storms will
   probably be ongoing north of the front early with some threat for
   hail. Initial surface-based storm development may occur by mid-late
   afternoon near triple point from northeast CO into southwest NE at
   intersection of surface low/front and dryline where convergence and
   deep mixing, as well as arrival of deeper forcing for ascent within
   upper jet exit region should weaken the cap. These storms should
   intensify as they develop northeast through the very unstable warm
   sector along and just south of the front where 40-50 kt effective
   bulk shear will favor supercells with very large hail. Tornado
   threat should be maximized from late afternoon through early evening
   as the low-level jet strengthens, contributing to increasing
   hodographs size with 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. More
   isolated supercells may develop southward through western KS.

   ...Southern Plains...

   With deeper forcing accompanying the shortwave trough remaining well
   north of the southern Plains during the day, question remains how
   much dryline initiation will occur. The warm sector east of the
   dryline will become moderately to strongly unstable with 2000-3000
   J/kg MLCAPE and steep lapse rates. A capping inversion with the
   elevated mixed layer will limit thunderstorm initiation much of the
   day. However, strong dryline mixing and convergence may be
   sufficient to initiate at least isolated storms during the late
   afternoon or early evening. Vertical wind profiles with 30-40 kt
   effective bulk shear will not be a strong as farther north, but will
   increase toward early evening, becoming sufficient for some
   supercell structures with very large hail and a couple of tornadoes
   the main threats.  Other storms may develop over the mountains of
   southwest TX. Later Friday night, a Pacific cold front will
   accompany the primary upper trough into the southern Plains and
   merge with the dryline, likely contributing to more numerous storm
   development with large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes
   possible.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  10% SIG - Enhanced
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

   ..Dial.. 05/16/2019

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