May 19, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 19 17:29:29 UTC 2019 (20190519 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190519 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190519 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 39,413 1,653,014 Oklahoma City, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...
ENHANCED 91,283 3,909,345 Tulsa, OK...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...
SLIGHT 160,505 13,931,373 Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...
MARGINAL 220,804 55,612,955 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Dallas, TX...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190519 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 165,510 6,523,671 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...
45 % 39,183 1,650,047 Oklahoma City, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...
30 % 92,494 3,968,146 Tulsa, OK...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...
15 % 159,260 13,809,557 Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...
5 % 221,012 55,766,105 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Dallas, TX...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...
   SPC AC 191729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
   TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
   NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including strong
   tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains on
   Monday.

   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS ON MONDAY...

   ...Southern Plains...
   A complicated, yet potentially higher-end severe weather scenario
   will unfold across the southern Plains throughout the forecast
   period.  Height falls associated with an approaching longwave trough
   centered over Arizona will overlie a strong surface dryline along
   the New Mexico/Texas border, resulting in a north-south oriented
   band of storms in that area around 12Z or so.  These storms will
   migrate northeastward and contain a threat for hail and damaging
   wind gusts throughout the morning due to steep mid-level lapse rates
   and supercellular wind profiles.  A tornado threat may also exist on
   the southern end of this activity - especially where convection can
   become surface-based and remain discrete amidst with slightly higher
   boundary layer moisture (i.e., upper 60s to 70s dewpoints).

   The evolution of this early morning complex will impact the severe
   risk in downstream areas of Oklahoma and northwest Texas through the
   afternoon and evening.  A variety of operational models and CAMS
   suggest that some portions of this MCS will interact with the
   northward-moving surface warm front and possibly retard its movement
   into northern portions of the outlook area (near the OK/KS border
   area).  Meanwhile, most model solutions suggest the development of
   isolated convection out ahead of any ongoing MCS activity - with
   this risk most evident across portions of southwestern Oklahoma and
   vicinity.  These storms are expected to reside in a environmental
   parameter space supportive of all severe hazards, including
   significant hail and strong tornadoes, and this risk should be
   maximized as long as discrete, cellular convection can persist
   through the forecast period.  This risk will become further enhanced
   by an increasingly strong low-level jet across the region during the
   early evening should storms maintain a relatively discrete mode.

   Farther downstream across eastern Oklahoma and vicinity, uncertainty
   remains regarding specific positioning of the warm front, although
   most model solutions persist in developing convection across the
   region via either an upstream MCS moving into the region and/or
   isolated convection forming along and south of the front.  The
   potential for isolated convection is plausible given surface
   heating, weak mid-level inhibition, and broadly confluent
   warm-sector low-level flow - even in the absence of any forcing for
   ascent aloft.  The environment along and south of any warm front or
   convective outflow will support all severe hazards, including strong
   tornadoes.  The inherited risk areas have been expanded eastward
   into western Arkansas to account for severe potential in those
   areas.

   North of the warm front (across Kansas and vicinity), steep
   mid-level lapse rates and strong vertical shear will support
   primarily elevated storms with a threat of large hail.  Steep
   mid-level lapse rates will also exist in portions of Colorado,
   although the development of any substantial surface-based
   instability will depend on convective evolution across the Texas
   Panhandle and vicinity.  Storms in that area will have at least a
   threat for large hail.

   Late in the forecast period (after about 06Z Tuesday), an ejecting
   mid-level trough over the Four Corners vicinity will take on a
   negative tilt while moving toward the High Plains.  Sustained
   low-level advection across the warm sector (and resultant moderate
   instability) should result in development of another line of storms
   across the Texas South Plains/Panhandle vicinity.  These storms
   should reach the I-35 corridor of Oklahoma and north Texas by the
   end of the forecast period, with damaging wind and isolated
   tornadoes remaining possible.

   ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
   Surface heating ahead of an approaching cold front near the
   Appalachians will result in steepening low-level lapse rates and
   weak instability.  Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor,
   although the glancing influence of an approaching wave over the
   eastern Great Lakes will result in development of a few convective
   cells along and ahead of the front.  Strong flow aloft and downward
   transport of that momentum near storms will result in a few damaging
   wind gusts.  This risk should wane with eastward extent in response
   to nocturnal stabilization.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  15% SIG - Moderate
   Wind:     45%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

   ..Cook.. 05/19/2019

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z