SPC AC 280533

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms associated with large hail and damaging wind
   gusts will be possible across parts of North Dakota into Minnesota
   on Saturday. Additional severe storms with damaging wind gusts may
   occur across across parts of the Northeast.

   ...Northern Plains...
   An upper-level ridge will move eastward from the northern Plains
   into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday as southwest mid-level
   flow becomes establishes across the northern High Plains. At the
   surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across
   the northern Plains. A very moist airmass should be in place ahead
   of the front with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This should
   contribute to moderate to strong instability across the eastern
   Dakotas and western Minnesota by Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms
   are first expected to develop in southern Saskatchewan during the
   mid afternoon with convection moving southeastward across the
   northern half of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota during the
   late afternoon. The storms will have access to moderate deep-layer
   shear with forecast soundings showing 0-6 km shear of 45 to 55 kt.
   This should support supercell development with a large-hail threat.
   Wind damage will also be possible with the stronger downdrafts. Some
   uncertainty exists concerning how long the severe threat will
   persist into the evening. Have put the southeastern edge of the
   slight risk into north-central Minnesota in case the threat lasts
   into the late evening.

   ...Northeast...
   An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across Ontario on
   Saturday as a cold front advances southeastward across the
   northeastern U.S. A moist airmass is forecast ahead of the front
   with surface dewpoints across southeast New York and southern New
   England in the mid to upper 60s F. In response, a pocket of moderate
   instability is forecast to develop by Saturday afternoon.
   Thunderstorms should develop along the front and move
   east-southeastward across the region during the early to mid
   afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear, veered low-level flow and
   steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for damaging wind
   gusts with the stronger storms. The severe threat should move toward
   the New England coastal areas by late afternoon.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Broyles.. 06/28/2019

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