Jun 28, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 28 17:48:38 UTC 2019 (20190628 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190628 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190628 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 121,046 46,331,120 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...
MARGINAL 252,349 32,442,932 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190628 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 22,661 208,746 Grand Forks, ND...Devils Lake, ND...Grafton, ND...
15 % 120,730 45,810,140 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
5 % 251,072 33,315,169 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Boston, MA...
   SPC AC 281748

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST
   STATES...

   CORRECTED FOR EASTERN U.S. SLIGHT RISK GRAPHIC

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms associated with large hail and damaging wind
   gusts will be possible across parts of North Dakota into Minnesota
   on Saturday. Additional severe storms with damaging wind gusts may
   occur across across parts of the Northeast.

   ...Northern Plains through upper Mississippi Valley region...

   An upper ridge will be the dominant feature much of the day over the
   northern Plains Saturday. However, a northeast-ejecting shortwave
   trough will suppress the northwest periphery of the ridge across ND
   by late afternoon into the evening.  At the surface a warm front
   will likely extend from the southern MN northwest to a lee low in
   western SD early in the day. A dryline/lee trough will extend
   southward through the High Plains. A cold front accompanying the
   shortwave trough will advance east into the Dakotas by late
   afternoon into the evening, reaching MN late Saturday night.  Storms
   may be ongoing in warm advection regime over ND early Saturday, and
   this feature may serve to reinforce the warm front baroclinic zone.
   The atmosphere will become very unstable (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE)
   south of the warm front across ND during the afternoon. However,
   warm air at the base of the EML will likely serve as a cap to
   surface based development much of the day. The most likely zone for
   thunderstorm development will be near the triple point region across
   northern ND by late afternoon or early evening, but an isolated
   storm or two cannot be ruled out farther south. Initial mode will
   likely be supercells with very large hail and a couple tornadoes
   possible. But storms may eventually grow upscale and spread east and
   southeast into northern MN overnight with a continued risk for
   damaging wind. An upgrade to enhanced might be required over a
   portion of ND in day 1 outlooks, but given uncertainty regarding
   storm coverage, will maintain slight risk category this update. 

   ...Northeast States...

   A cold front will advance southeast through the Northeast States
   within a northwesterly flow regime associated with an amplifying
   eastern U.S. upper trough. The pre-frontal warm sector will become
   moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are
   expected to intensify along the front from PA into southern New
   England by mid day or early afternoon. Belt of modest westerly
   (30-35 kt) deep layer winds and the destabilizing boundary layer
   will promote a few strong to severe gusts as activity develops
   southeast.

   ...eastern Oklahoma through eastern Texas...

   Upper low circulation currently over the lower MS Valley along with
   an MCV over MO are forecast to move southwest into eastern OK and
   eastern TX. Thunderstorms may redevelop within a moderately to
   strongly unstable environment in association with these features and
   spread southwestward. The thermodynamic environment will promote a
   risk for hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts during the
   afternoon into early evening.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15% SIG - Slight

   ..Dial.. 06/28/2019

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