Jun 29, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 29 17:30:58 UTC 2019 (20190629 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190629 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190629 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 121,960 19,728,172 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...
MARGINAL 266,577 21,761,962 Indianapolis, IN...Boston, MA...Louisville, KY...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190629 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 122,244 19,723,824 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...
5 % 264,833 21,683,319 Indianapolis, IN...Boston, MA...Louisville, KY...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...
   SPC AC 291730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the upper
   Mississippi Valley through the northern Plains, with damaging wind
   and hail the main threats. A few strong storms with hail and gusty
   winds are possible over southern New England from late morning into
   early afternoon.

   ...Upper Mississippi Valley region into the northern Plains...

   The northern periphery of the upper ridge over the northern Plains
   will be suppressed by a shortwave trough that will move east through
   Saskatchewan and Manitoba Sunday.  This feature will be accompanied
   by a cold front that will extend from northwest MN to western NE by
   12Z Sunday. By 00Z the cold front will extend from the western upper
   peninsula of MI through southern MN and into western NE where it
   will remain stationary. A warm front will have advanced north and
   should stretch from northeast MN through central WI and into the OH
   Valley. 

   Though model solutions vary on the location/timing, an MCS should be
   ongoing just north /east of the warm front from eastern MN into
   northern or central WI. This feature may pose an ongoing threat for
   mainly damaging wind. The warm sector will become very unstable
   during the afternoon with a plume of steeper (7-7.5 C/km) mid-level
   lapse spreading east above a very moist boundary layer with
   dewpoints in the low 70s F contributing to 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. 
   Diabatic warming of the surface layer should occur downstream of the
   MCS and reintensification is expected during the afternoon as the
   storms advance south and southeast through the remainder of WI and
   into IL along and just to the cool side of the warm front. Damaging
   wind and hail are expected as activity continues southward through
   northern IL. Other storms may develop along cold front across
   southern MN into southeast SD during the afternoon. Wind profiles
   with weak vertical shear will favor multicells, but the
   thermodynamic environment will promote a threat for damaging wind
   and large hail. 

   ...Northern High Plains...

   Easterly post frontal upslope flow will develop from southeast MT
   into northeast WY with dewpoints generally in the 50s to around 60F.
   Plume of steeper lapse rates will persist over this region and the
   atmosphere should become moderately unstable as low clouds mix out
   from the west. Storms should develop during the afternoon over the
   higher terrain and spread east into the High Plains where wind
   profiles with 30-40 kt effective shear will support some supercell
   structures. Large hail and isolated damaging wind will be possible
   from late afternoon into mid evening.

   ...Southern New England...

   Cold temperatures aloft associated with an amplifying upper trough
   will overspread this region generally along and north of a cold
   front that should move through southern New England the first half
   of the day. Diabatic warming will further destabilize the atmosphere
   with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Storms developing within this
   regime may produce a few instances of hail and gusty winds from late
   morning into mid afternoon.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Dial.. 06/29/2019

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z