New York, NY...Nashville, TN...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Virginia Beach, VA...
SPC AC 121719
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
Severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening over
the Middle Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Other
strong to severe storms are possible over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and the central High Plains.
...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A subtle cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Tuesday
from the north-central states eastward into the Northeast. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Mid-Atlantic
extending west-southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A
surface low along the front will move eastward across the central
Appalachians. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front should be in the
lower 70s contributing to a corridor of moderate instability by
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the
front during the afternoon from southern Ohio eastward across the
Virginias into Maryland. Cells may tend to organize into lines and
MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the early
NAM forecast soundings along the front from West Virginia into
northern Virginia and southern Maryland suggest that MLCAPE values
could reach 2500 J/kg at peak heating. Winds are veered to the
southwest at the surface with about 30 kt of westerly flow in the
mid-levels. This combined with steep lapse rates in the lowest 3 km
AGL will be favorable for damaging wind gusts associated with line
segments. If a cold pool can develop with a larger-scale line
segment, then numerous damaging wind gusts will be possible from
eastern West Virginia eastward to Delaware and southern New Jersey.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A minor shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will track
southeastward from central Minnesota to near Minneapolis and then
along the Mississippi River. Ahead of the surface low track, an axis
of maximized low-level moisture will exist with surface dewpoints in
the mid 60s F. In response to surface heating, a pocket of moderate
instability may develop by afternoon. Convection is forecast to
initiate ahead of the shortwave trough and move southeastward across
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the mid to late
afternoon. MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg combined with 0-6
km shear of 35 to 45 kt may be favorable for an isolated severe
threat with hail and strong gusty winds possible. Poor lapse rates
should keep any threat marginal.
A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will move across the western U.S.
on Tuesday as west to northwest mid-level flow remains over the
central High Plains. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to
develop in southeastern Colorado ahead of a front, moving southward
into northeastern Colorado. Convection appears likely to initiate
along the front during the late afternoon with thunderstorms moving
southeastward into western Kansas by early evening. Strong
directional shear profiles along with steep lapse rates may be
enough for hail in the stronger cores. A few marginally severe wind
gusts will also be possible.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 15% - Slight
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