Sep 3, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 3 17:28:09 UTC 2019 (20190903 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190903 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190903 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 132,807 54,620,052 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Jacksonville, FL...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190903 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 132,551 54,489,542 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Jacksonville, FL...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...
   SPC AC 031728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...AND DEEP SOUTH
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of tornadoes are possible along the Georgia and south
   Carolina coastal areas Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night
   in association with Hurricane Dorian.  A brief tornado or two will
   also be possible over deep south Texas, as Tropical Depression 7
   strengthens and moves gradually onshore over northeastern Mexico. 
   Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts are possible Wednesday afternoon
   from the Middle Atlantic through New England.

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper pattern across the U.S. will be characterized by a large
   ridge, affecting much of the Rockies and into the Plains states.  A
   weak upper low/trough is forecast to remain just off the West Coast,
   while a stronger short-wave trough progresses eastward across the
   Northeast.  Meanwhile, Hurricane Dorian is forecast to advance
   slowly northward just off the Southeast U.S. Coast, while Tropical
   Depression #7 moves westward across the western Gulf of Mexico.

   At the surface, a cold front, accompanying the Northeast U.S. upper
   system, will advance across the Northeast through the period, while
   high pressure prevails across the central U.S. and into the Rockies.


   ...New England southwestward to the northern Chesapeake Bay
   vicinity...
   A cold front is forecast to advance across the Northeast Wednesday,
   ahead of a parent mid-level short-wave trough.  While mid- to
   high-level cloud cover from remnant/prior storms is expected to
   hinder insolation/subsequent destabilization across parts of the
   area, enough instability should evolve during the afternoon to
   permit scattered to isolated storm development ahead of the
   advancing front.

   With a relatively strong, southwesterly/westerly flow field aloft
   expected atop the region, potential for fast-moving cells, and
   possibly a few semi-organized bands of storms, is apparent.  While
   the overall severe risk still appears likely to be limited by modest
   destabilization potential during the afternoon, an upgrade to slight
   risk could be required in later forecasts if potential for slightly
   greater afternoon destabilization becomes apparent.

   ...Southeast U.S. Coast...
   Latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center depict that
   Hurricane Dorian -- which should lie off the Florida Coast Wednesday
   morning -- will move northward/northwestward along the southeastern
   Atlantic Coast, to a position east of the southern South Carolina
   Coast late.  With east to northeast low-level flow near the coast,
   north of the storm's center, veering slightly with height, a shear
   profile supportive of low-level rotation is expected.  Therefore,
   the risk for a tornado or two will expand gradually northward in
   conjunction with Dorian's progression, reaching roughly the vicinity
   of the North Carolina/South Carolina border by sunrise Thursday.

   ...Deep south Texas...
   As Tropical Depression #7, now over the western Gulf of Mexico,
   moves westward with time, slow strengthening -- possibly to Tropical
   Storm intensity -- is forecast (please see the latest forecasts from
   the National Hurricane Center).  With a corresponding increase in
   the wind field surrounding the low, low-level shear may be
   sufficient to support limited risk for a brief tornado spin-up or
   two -- which may linger through much of the period as the storm
   moves inland over northeast Mexico during latter stages of the
   period.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Goss.. 09/03/2019

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