SPC AC 090719

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2019

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
   in Illinois/Indiana and western Kentucky Thursday afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   A vigorous mid-level disturbance - initially centered over Nebraska
   at the start of the period - will maintain its intensity while
   lifting northward toward the western Great Lakes region Thursday. 
   On the southern and eastern periphery of this disturbance, a belt of
   very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level flow will shift eastward,
   overspreading portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. 
   Meanwhile at the surface, a deeply occluded low will migrate from
   eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota.  A low-level moist axis -
   characterized by 50s F dewpoints - will shift eastward just ahead of
   a cold front that should reach western Illinois, southeastern
   Missouri, and eastern Arkansas by the early evening.

   ...Portions of the Midwest southward to western Kentucky...
   The combination of strong forcing/ascent associated with the
   mid-level disturbance and cold front will likely result in evolution
   of a linear convective complex that should progress
   eastward/northeastward across the Marginal and Slight Risk areas
   Thursday afternoon.  Surface-based instability should be marginal
   owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, although very strong wind
   fields aloft (exceeding 90-100 kts above 650 mb across the region)
   will enhance convective downdraft potential and result in a risk of
   damaging wind gusts.  This threat should mainly be diurnally driven,
   with weakening buoyancy limiting the severe threat with eastward
   extent overnight.

   ..Cook.. 04/09/2019

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z