May 15, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed May 15 07:25:07 UTC 2019 (20190515 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20190515 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190515 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 76,828 1,006,173 Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...
SLIGHT 195,875 4,281,316 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Abilene, TX...
MARGINAL 236,453 30,068,382 Chicago, IL...Columbus, OH...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190515 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 155,170 1,882,283 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...
30 % 76,412 997,656 Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...
15 % 196,924 4,292,743 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Abilene, TX...
5 % 235,240 29,605,798 Chicago, IL...Columbus, OH...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...Pittsburgh, PA...
   SPC AC 150725

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 AM CDT Wed May 15 2019

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
   CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are expected across parts of the Plains, mainly from
   Nebraska southward into west Texas. Very large hail and a few
   tornadoes are possible. Scattered severe hail is also possible
   across southern South Dakota, as well as across parts of Ohio and
   West Virginia.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large upper trough will move across the Rockies with strong
   southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the Plains. Height
   falls/cooling aloft will enhance lift, and a moist, unstable air
   mass will develop through the period. 

   Consensus is for low pressure to develop over the CO/KS/NE region,
   with a stationary front stretching from northern NE across IA, IL,
   OH and WV. Meanwhile, a sharp dryline will develop across western NE
   and KS into the eastern OK and TX Panhandles and west TX where it
   will remain overnight. Strengthening southerly winds over the Plains
   will bring mid 60s F dewpoints north across the entire warm sector,
   which will result in areas of strong instability. Lift related to
   the aforementioned boundaries should result in a few concentrated
   areas of severe storms, with very large hail and few tornadoes
   possible.

   Elsewhere, sufficient instability will develop along the eastern
   extent of the stationary front, beneath modest west/northwest flow
   aloft which may support isolated severe storms during the day.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Daytime heating, cooling aloft and moisture advection will result in
   2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the low and south of the stationary
   front. By late afternoon, wind profiles will favor supercells
   producing very large hail and tornadoes as SRH increases late in the
   day. Numerous storms are possible along the front eventually, and
   this could result in a severe MCS with both damaging wind and hail
   threat.

   North of the front, large hail is possible across much of SD,
   northwest IA and southwest MN as the low-level jet maintains strong
   elevated instability.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Strong instability will develop along the dryline with daytime
   heating and dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s F. A capping
   inversion will exist east of the dryline, with development expected
   where heating is strongest. Ample deep-layer shear along with
   increasing SRH late in the day and overnight will support supercells
   capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Storms may not move
   very far east until overnight when a larger complex of storms is
   forecast from southwest TX into southwest OK, with all modes of
   severe possible.

   ...IA/IL/IN/OH/WV...
   A few areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing along this corridor
   Friday morning related to warm/moist advection out of the
   west/southwest near the front. Instability will generally be
   elevated through about 18Z when the air mass become uncapped.
   1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast from IL eastward into WV which
   will support a few strong storms redeveloping from eastern IA across
   northern IL, IN, over OH and into WV and southwest PA. Hail and wind
   will be possible with the strongest storms.

   ..Jewell.. 05/15/2019

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