Sep 11, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 11 07:13:56 UTC 2019 (20190911 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20190911 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190911 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 86,334 19,431,318 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190911 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 85,841 19,002,812 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Cincinnati, OH...
   SPC AC 110713

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with an isolated wind-damage threat will be
   possible on Friday from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the
   mid Mississippi Valley.

   ...Lower Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
   An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Upper Mississippi
   Valley on Friday as warm advection takes place across the Great
   Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance
   eastward across the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. Some
   thunderstorm activity should be ongoing along the front in the
   morning. As surface heating takes place across the warm sector,
   moderate instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. In
   response, convection along the front should increase in coverage by
   late afternoon with formation of a linear MCS possible. At this
   point, model consensus between the NAM, GFS and ECMWF suggests the
   best combination of shear and instability will exist late Friday
   afternoon from near Detroit southwestward to Indianapolis. This
   would be the area with the greatest potential for damaging gusts.
   Severe threat coverage is expected to remain isolated mainly due to
   the position of the upper-level trough, which is forecast to remain
   well to the northwest of the front.

   ..Broyles.. 09/11/2019

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z