SPC AC 110713
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated wind-damage threat will be
possible on Friday from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the
mid Mississippi Valley.
...Lower Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Upper Mississippi
Valley on Friday as warm advection takes place across the Great
Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance
eastward across the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. Some
thunderstorm activity should be ongoing along the front in the
morning. As surface heating takes place across the warm sector,
moderate instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. In
response, convection along the front should increase in coverage by
late afternoon with formation of a linear MCS possible. At this
point, model consensus between the NAM, GFS and ECMWF suggests the
best combination of shear and instability will exist late Friday
afternoon from near Detroit southwestward to Indianapolis. This
would be the area with the greatest potential for damaging gusts.
Severe threat coverage is expected to remain isolated mainly due to
the position of the upper-level trough, which is forecast to remain
well to the northwest of the front.
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