DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2020 VALID TIME 152000Z - 161200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 48629315 47339244 46269389 46389485 46999607 47429647 48409684 48869641 48919538 48629315 0.02 43130092 41490132 41040213 41140317 41460343 42720300 43380215 43650149 43520108 43130092 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 49079229 48019136 46209159 45009240 45669396 46929630 47929728 49489793 0.05 37219376 37189291 37459209 37809148 37749067 36819079 35969108 35189239 35089372 35479500 35999573 36589604 37089594 37289546 37349516 37219376 0.05 39200497 39750405 41210355 42300316 42840296 43230242 43370220 43650149 43520101 43190091 42510109 41310126 40820130 39900051 39289956 38389901 37319856 36609881 36029989 36060141 35510289 35320419 35790520 36680525 37570511 38650525 39200497 0.15 49149292 48019196 47279200 46529322 46429361 46839483 48379667 49229713 0.15 39700306 39670286 39220203 38250166 37220194 36640268 36590290 36760334 36940367 37490397 37920413 38520418 38940407 39310388 39720344 39700306 && ... WIND ... 0.05 48729210 47919141 46489142 45959152 45209188 45009240 45619388 46819616 47849724 49109779 0.05 37230521 37550512 38650522 39210492 39890399 41720336 42580305 43020267 43400212 43650149 43490090 42550108 41500120 40850129 39830048 39339962 38339899 37289859 36569872 35779945 34870143 33640471 33810612 34800665 37230521 0.05 39609076 41258974 41488950 41588909 41648823 41268779 40808775 39278842 37248947 35449127 34919242 34889358 35299504 35969584 36599604 37179561 37299470 37339348 37609251 39609076 0.15 38500375 38960305 39140245 39110205 39060166 38690106 38310076 38100067 37700068 36700133 36560177 36550266 36630311 36960370 37390389 37920410 38500375 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... SLGT 48469234 48019196 47279200 46529322 46429361 46839482 48379667 48999700 SLGT 36720130 36570169 36570273 36650317 36960370 37230382 37970411 38530416 39010403 39320387 39690346 39690290 39350229 39030163 38680101 38160065 37700068 36720130 MRGL 48119144 48019136 47619141 46489142 45959151 45209188 45009240 45619388 46819617 46929630 47319668 47849724 47929728 48449750 48999774 MRGL 41268779 40808775 39278842 37248947 35449127 34919242 34889358 35299504 35969584 36559603 36589604 36599604 36599604 36609604 37089594 37289546 37349516 37309464 37339348 37609251 39609076 41258974 41488950 41588909 41648823 41268779 MRGL 39740404 40760373 42670304 43090265 43420217 43670150 43550103 43160090 42470111 41700122 40820130 39900051 39289956 38389901 37319856 37309857 37289855 36569872 35779945 34870143 33640471 33810612 34800665 37170520 37210517 37570511 38650525 39220492 39740404 TSTM 44787578 44037552 43157573 41727673 41167720 41057766 41087896 40798012 40038042 38937937 38497836 38547744 38697655 38377497 38437421 99999999 28619470 29049501 29619629 29979738 30039802 29699872 29229919 29229937 29430053 29940159 29470229 99999999 31711257 32811088 33491095 33771146 34311171 34631151 34651092 34540987 34700919 35150837 35490781 35860742 36210720 36900705 37700714 38360681 40680527 42920348 43750183 44050094 44020044 43479999 42489917 41529813 40689724 39479668 38699619 38439579 38219533 38109421 38109290 38399249 38709214 39199182 40499153 40709158 40969160 41349149 41789121 42279057 42559020 42968968 43508960 43778976 43659157 44079215 45999538 46819657 47649779 49239987 99999999 32251667 32881682 33421714 34121767 34391908 33941963 99999999 33812033 34382060 35192066 35412066 35592056 35702035 35832000 36051974 36231962 36591973 37141978 37842006 39112017 40352062 41092117 41432155 40842239 40642292 40722331 40902343 41842382 42912344 44112211 43902091 43391934 42411853 40491860 38941802 38031781 36581754 36111772 35531789 35081775 35001705 34251617 33971539 33641513 33501529 33401576 32951596 32301590 && THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 10 NNW ELO 30 W BFW 45 ENE BRD 25 E BRD 45 NW BRD 30 SSE HCO 15 N HCO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE GUY 15 SW GUY 25 ENE CAO 15 N CAO 40 ESE TAD 30 E TAD 30 SE PUB 25 NE PUB 25 SW LIC 10 WNW LIC 30 NNE LIC 40 SSE AKO 10 N ITR 25 S GLD 55 NNW GCK 15 NNE GCK 15 S GCK 10 ENE GUY. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ELO 25 ENE ELO 30 N BFW 25 W ASX 50 SW ASX 30 NW EAU 40 ENE MSP 10 ENE STC 15 W DTL 20 WNW DTL 30 NNE FAR 10 SSW GFK GFK 35 SW HCO 40 WNW HCO. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW VPZ 40 N DNV 15 SSW MTO CGI 30 SE BVX 15 NW LIT 40 SW RUE 30 NW RKR 15 S TUL 15 S BVO 15 S BVO 15 S BVO 10 S BVO 10 S BVO 20 NNE BVO 25 S CNU 30 SE CNU 15 NW JLN 10 NW SGF 25 WSW TBN 35 SE UIN 40 N PIA 45 W MMO 25 NW MMO 30 NE MMO 45 WSW VPZ. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW LIC 45 WSW SNY 10 SSE CDR 30 NE CDR 50 SSW PHP 25 S PHP 45 SE PHP 30 NW VTN 30 N MHN 25 SSW MHN 25 NE IML 20 S MCK 15 ESE HLC 35 SSW RSL P28 P28 P28 15 S AVK 35 NNW CSM 30 SE AMA 25 NNW ROW 30 SW 4CR 15 S ABQ 40 ESE ALS 40 ESE ALS 45 ENE ALS 30 WSW COS 30 NNW COS 40 NNW LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MSS 25 E ART 15 W UCA 35 SSE ELM 15 WSW IPT 15 NE UNV 10 SSW DUJ 20 NNE PIT 15 SE HLG 25 E EKN 25 N CHO 30 SW DCA 30 ESE DCA 30 E SBY 70 E SBY ...CONT... 50 S GLS 25 SW GLS 60 NW LBX 30 SE AUS 20 N BAZ 20 NW SAT 10 S HDO 15 SW HDO 25 E DRT 40 E 6R6 40 S 6R6 ...CONT... 85 S GBN 50 N TUS 60 E PHX 40 NE PHX 45 ESE PRC 35 SSE FLG 30 SSW INW 20 NNE SOW 55 ENE SOW 25 W GNT 20 NNE GNT 30 WSW 4SL 20 NW 4SL 45 ESE DRO 50 NE DRO 15 SSE GUC 20 NW FCL 20 WNW CDR 25 SSW PHP 35 E PHP 25 SSW PIR 40 WSW 9V9 25 W ONL 40 NNE GRI 25 WSW LNK 25 N MHK 25 N EMP 20 ENE EMP 40 NNE CNU 55 SW SZL 50 WNW TBN 25 SW JEF JEF 35 NE COU 30 SW BRL 25 WSW BRL 30 WNW BRL 40 SSE CID 25 ESE CID 10 SE DBQ 30 ENE DBQ 20 WSW MSN 30 NNW MSN 30 ESE VOK 20 SW LSE 20 ENE RST 10 N AXN 15 ESE FAR 35 SW GFK 90 NNW DVL ...CONT... 30 SSW CZZ 25 ENE SAN 40 SSE RAL 15 NW RAL 15 NNE OXR 30 SW OXR ...CONT... 50 SSW SBA 25 S VBG 25 NNW SMX 20 S PRB PRB 15 E PRB 35 ENE PRB 50 S FAT 40 S FAT 15 S FAT 25 N FAT 45 NNE MER 15 NNW TVL 75 NW RNO 40 SW AAT 40 E MHS 35 S MHS 50 NW RBL 40 E EKA 35 E ACV 20 ENE CEC 50 NW MFR 50 W RDM 25 SSE RDM 25 SW BNO 35 WSW REO 30 N LOL 55 SE NFL 40 W TPH 60 N NID 30 N NID 15 SW NID 15 NNE EDW 20 NW DAG 45 N TRM 45 WNW BLH 25 W BLH 35 WSW BLH 30 SE TRM 25 WNW IPL 40 ESE CZZ.