Jan 10, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 10 20:02:11 UTC 2020 (20200110 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200110 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the South-Central States this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Graphic
20200110 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 88,240 6,677,296 Memphis, TN...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...
ENHANCED 116,127 19,877,439 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
SLIGHT 124,821 10,129,899 Oklahoma City, OK...St. Louis, MO...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Springfield, MO...
MARGINAL 67,741 3,622,193 Corpus Christi, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Columbia, MO...Tupelo, MS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200110 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 113,920 10,709,763 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
15 % 27,572 1,271,612 Shreveport, LA...Bossier City, LA...Monroe, LA...Greenville, MS...Marshall, TX...
10 % 90,517 9,832,915 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 121,194 17,046,707 Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...Baton Rouge, LA...
2 % 96,679 6,964,518 San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Jackson, TN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200110 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 108,695 10,452,826 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
45 % 88,171 6,665,734 Memphis, TN...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...
30 % 113,796 18,651,160 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...
15 % 111,346 10,245,774 San Antonio, TX...St. Louis, MO...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Springfield, MO...
5 % 75,758 4,348,125 Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Columbia, MO...Edmond, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200110 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 46,714 11,630,632 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
30 % 35,138 10,744,319 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
15 % 154,542 14,974,396 Houston, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Shreveport, LA...Springfield, MO...
5 % 116,300 5,516,193 Corpus Christi, TX...Little Rock, AR...Lafayette, LA...Beaumont, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...
   SPC AC 102002

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST
   OK...NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR...AND WESTERN MS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widespread severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern Great
   Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening, spreading east into the
   Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The most dangerous corridor for
   strong tornadoes and intense damaging winds should be centered on
   northeast Texas through northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas
   this evening through the overnight.

   ...Discussion...
   Only relatively minor changes were made to the previous convective
   outlook.  Those changes are listed according...1) removal and/or
   eastward adjustment of severe probabilities over parts of western
   OK/south-central KS.  2) including the greater St. Louis metro in a
   categorical slight risk for the possibility of wind damage from
   squall line activity later this evening.  3) Lowering severe hail
   probabilities over east-central OK from 30-percent to 15-percent
   based on ongoing convective trends and the expected gradual shift of
   the area of most pristine mid-level lapse rates to be farther south
   into TX.

   ..Smith.. 01/10/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020/

   The ongoing forecast appears to be in good shape, with no changes
   made for this update.

   ...OK/KS/MO...
   Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring this morning over
   northwest OK.  These storms will persist through the day and spread
   northeastward into parts of southern KS and eventually western MO. 
   Much of this activity appears to be elevated, with the primary risk 
   being hail.  

   ...OK/TX/AR...
   12z model solutions are in solid agreement that intense convection
   will form by mid afternoon roughly along the low-level jet axis
   across central/eastern OK - building southward into north-central
   TX.  Forecast soundings show very strong vertical shear and
   sufficient CAPE for a few supercells, along with bowing structures. 
   Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with the strongest
   cells.  A strong tornado is possible.  Severe storms should spread
   eastward into western AR after dark.

   ...TX/AR/LA/MS...
   By late afternoon, a line of intense storms should develop from
   northeast into east-central TX.  These storms will track eastward
   into a progressively more sheared and moist environment.  Large hail
   will be the primary threat initially, but storms will quickly evolve
   into bowing structures with increasing risks of widespread damaging
   winds and a few tornadoes through the night.  Forecast soundings
   show minimal cap ahead of the line, along with intense low-level
   shear and ample boundary layer moisture.  This suggests the
   potential for a few discrete storms to form ahead of the squall line
   as it moves across parts of AR/LA overnight.  These storms would
   have the most prominent threat of strong tornadoes.  12z guidance is
   consistent in timing the squall line into western MS and southwest
   TN before Sat/12z, with a continued damaging wind and tornado
   threat.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z