Mar 2, 2020 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 2 06:02:07 UTC 2020 (20200302 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200302 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200302 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 31,888 3,820,717 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Clarksville, TN...Jackson, TN...Franklin, TN...
MARGINAL 97,898 6,852,494 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Murfreesboro, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200302 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 36,734 3,780,808 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Jackson, TN...Jonesboro, AR...Franklin, TN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200302 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 123,919 9,973,850 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Mesquite, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200302 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 32,004 3,825,061 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Clarksville, TN...Jackson, TN...Franklin, TN...
5 % 97,832 6,861,553 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Murfreesboro, TN...
   SPC AC 020602

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   ARKANSAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the
   Mid-South region southwestward across parts of northeastern Texas 
   Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.

   ...Synopsis...
   As northern-stream upper troughing expands/shifts gradually eastward
   across central and eastern Canada and the north-central U.S., an
   upper low initially off the southern California coast is progged to
   turn eastward with time, reaching northwestern Mexico later in the
   period.  Meanwhile, fast/low-amplitude westerly to
   west-southwesterly flow will prevail over the south-central and
   southeastern portions of the country.

   At the surface, a cold front initially stretching from the Upper
   Great Lakes region southwestward to western Texas will advance
   eastward with time, reaching a position from New England to
   southeast Texas by the end of the period.  This front will focus a
   zone of convection from parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys into
   northeastern Texas from this afternoon into the overnight hours.

   ...Mid South region southwestward across northeastern Texas...
   As the cold front advances gradually southeastward across
   Kentucky/Tennessee/Arkansas/northeastern Texas through the day, an
   initial area of warm-advection-induced storms will spread eastward
   through the Mid South region.  In its wake, weak destabilization is
   expected ahead of the front, though capping will hinder new storm
   development into the afternoon hours.

   Substantial model differences exist with respect to the degree of
   cap erosion, with HRRR and NAM forecasts the most aggressive models
   with elimination of capping by late afternoon, resulting in an
   uncapped/amply unstable environment.  Given favorable shear across
   the region, this thermodynamic evolution would support at least
   isolated supercell storms, and attendant severe risk -- particularly
   in the form of hail.  Other/isolated storms are more consistently
   forecast by the models southwestward across Arkansas and northern
   Louisiana and portions of northeastern Texas.

   Based on the consistently more bullish output from NAM/HRRR runs, an
   upgrade to slight risk appears reasonable.  Primary risk appears to
   be hail, but locally damaging winds and even a couple of tornadoes
   would be possible should capping erode to the degree depicted in
   some guidance.  Primary risk appears to exist across the western
   Tennessee vicinity in roughly the 23 to 04Z time frame.  Marginal
   risk is also being extended as far southwestward as northeast Texas,
   where a few stronger storms appear likely to initiate during the
   afternoon.

   ..Goss/Nauslar.. 03/02/2020

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