Mar 2, 2020 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 2 12:44:43 UTC 2020 (20200302 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200302 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200302 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 37,269 4,192,714 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Clarksville, TN...Jackson, TN...Jonesboro, AR...
MARGINAL 96,067 6,600,009 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Murfreesboro, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200302 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 36,734 3,780,808 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Jackson, TN...Jonesboro, AR...Franklin, TN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200302 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 133,260 10,784,279 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Huntsville, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200302 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 37,135 4,177,577 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Clarksville, TN...Jackson, TN...Jonesboro, AR...
5 % 96,059 6,625,856 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Murfreesboro, TN...
   SPC AC 021244

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0644 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

   Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
   TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO WESTERN TN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the
   Mid-South region southwestward across parts of northeastern Texas 
   late this afternoon through early Tuesday morning.

   ...Mid-South to northeast TX this evening into tonight...
   Split flow regime will persist through early Tuesday as a closed low
   off the southern CA coast moves eastward to northwest Mexico, and a
   northern stream trough digs southeastward from AB to the upper MS
   Valley.  At the surface, a weak low will move east-northeastward
   along a baroclinic zone from southeast OK this morning to the lower
   OH Valley by tonight.  Low-level moistening continues to the south
   of the front, and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will
   spread north-northeastward toward the Mid-South through this
   evening.  This moistening will occur beneath the eastern extent of a
   plume of steep midlevel lapse rates over the southern Plains, though
   the base of the elevated mixed layer will be warm enough to cap the
   boundary layer until late this afternoon into early tonight.

   The initial convective cluster centered over the MO Bootheel as of
   12z will weaken this morning.  Convective inhibition and only weak
   forcing for ascent will tend to delay additional thunderstorm
   development across AR until late this afternoon/evening, when a few
   storms should form along the slow-moving front.  MLCAPE near 1500
   J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40 kt will favor supercells
   capable of producing large hail, given the midlevel lapse rates in
   excess of 8 C/km and cool midlevel temperatures.  A modest increase
   in low-level shear this evening could support a low-end tornado
   threat, as well.  

   Farther southwest, isolated thunderstorm development is also
   possible this evening along the front into northeast TX.  However, a
   shallow moist boundary layer and widespread high clouds cast some
   doubt on diurnal storm formation.  Assuming storms form this
   evening, isolated large hail and damaging gusts will be possible.

   ..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/02/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z