Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 301630
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX...
Severe hail and wind are possible over parts of the southern High
Plains into central Texas this afternoon and early evening.
...TX/OK Panhandle into Western North TX...
An upper trough is noted in water vapor imagery over NM. This
feature will track eastward today, providing large scale ascent and
steepening midlevel lapse rates across parts of western TX/OK.
Visible imagery shows clearing occurring over parts of this region,
helping to destabilize the air mass and lead to scattered
thunderstorm development along a sharpening dryline. Initial storms
over the OK/TX panhandles will be supercellular with the risk of
large hail and damaging winds. One or more of these clusters of
storms may persist well into the evening, tracking southeastward
along the Red River and eventually into western North TX.
Most 12z CAM solutions show scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon in region of low-level warm advection across central TX.
Instability will be weak due to cloud cover. However, vertical
shear profiles suggest some risk of rotating storms capable of
gusty/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Therefore have adjusted
SLGT risk area to include this zone.
Confidence has decreased that robust convection can survive late
tonight along the baroclinic zone from east TX into MS. There
remains a MRGL risk of a severe storm or two, but probabilities have
been decreased to below SLGT risk thresholds.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z