Mar 30, 2020 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 30 16:30:44 UTC 2020 (20200330 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200330 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200330 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 68,190 8,335,925 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
MARGINAL 86,349 4,164,753 Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Round Rock, TX...College Station, TX...Longview, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200330 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 64,626 3,515,760 Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Tyler, TX...College Station, TX...Bryan, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200330 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 60,711 8,173,820 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 86,655 4,044,519 Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Round Rock, TX...College Station, TX...Longview, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200330 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 9,275 81,044 Liberal, KS...Guymon, OK...
15 % 46,324 904,121 Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Duncan, OK...Altus, OK...Liberal, KS...
5 % 76,704 9,589,161 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
   SPC AC 301630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

   Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe hail and wind are possible over parts of the southern High
   Plains into central Texas this afternoon and early evening.

   ...TX/OK Panhandle into Western North TX...
   An upper trough is noted in water vapor imagery over NM.  This
   feature will track eastward today, providing large scale ascent and
   steepening midlevel lapse rates across parts of western TX/OK. 
   Visible imagery shows clearing occurring over parts of this region,
   helping to destabilize the air mass and lead to scattered
   thunderstorm development along a sharpening dryline.  Initial storms
   over the OK/TX panhandles will be supercellular with the risk of
   large hail and damaging winds.  One or more of these clusters of
   storms may persist well into the evening, tracking southeastward
   along the Red River and eventually into western North TX.  

   ...Central TX...
   Most 12z CAM solutions show scattered thunderstorm development this
   afternoon in region of low-level warm advection across central TX. 
   Instability will be weak due to cloud cover.  However, vertical
   shear profiles suggest some risk of rotating storms capable of
   gusty/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.  Therefore have adjusted
   SLGT risk area to include this zone.

   ...LA/MS...
   Confidence has decreased that robust convection can survive late
   tonight along the baroclinic zone from east TX into MS.  There
   remains a MRGL risk of a severe storm or two, but probabilities have
   been decreased to below SLGT risk thresholds.

   ..Hart/Bentley.. 03/30/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z