Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,718
58,399
Clovis, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,612
58,359
Clovis, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
SPC AC 110026
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal risk for an isolated severe gust and hail exists for
portions of northeast New Mexico this evening.
...Southern High Plains...
The north extent of a low-level moisture plume over the southern
High Plains may continue to foster additional storm development this
evening. Widely spaced thunderstorms east of the high terrain will
gradually encounter weakening low-level lapse rates as the evening
progresses. In the meantime (through 9pm MDT), it appears the
greatest risk for a strong storm or two may reside across parts of
northeast NM where slightly stronger mid- to high-level
northwesterly flow may aid in storm organization/vigor. An instance
or two of severe hail/wind may accompany the strongest storms before
weakening later this evening.
...Upper OH Valley...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough over the southern Great Lakes and this feature will progress
eastward into western NY/PA by early Monday morning. Despite cold
temperatures contributing to steep lapse rates, a paucity of
low-level moisture resides across western PA this evening with
surface dewpoints generally in the upper 20s F. Low-topped
convection will likely persist this evening but continue to weaken
due in part to the loss of heating. Therefore, general
thunderstorms are forecast.
..Smith.. 05/11/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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