New York, NY...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...Shreveport, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
113,079
27,888,818
San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Boston, MA...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 160048
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across much of
Texas tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will move off the
southern New England Coast later this evening. Isolated
strong/severe storms remain possible across the central High Plains.
...01z Update...
Large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across NY into New
England this evening. Organized convection, with damaging wind
gusts, is progressing across southern New England and will soon
reach the Atlantic Coast where buoyancy is very limited, per CHH
sounding. Trailing pre-frontal convection across PA should propagate
east toward northern NJ but this activity may also struggle as it
approaches the Middle Atlantic Coast.
Weak upper low over far west TX should drift east tonight. This
feature appears partly responsible for an expansive corridor of deep
convection that stretches from northeast Mexico - west TX - southern
OK. With a reservoir of high-buoyancy air just downstream of this
convection, it appears likely that a slow eastward expansion through
central into portions of east TX will be noted by sunrise. Hail and
wind remain possible with this activity.
Strongly sheared, but weakly buoyant air mass across the central
Plains is supporting scattered thunderstorms from western NE into
eastern CO. This activity should spread/develop southeast into
northwestern KS later this evening as LLJ strengthens.
..Darrow.. 05/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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