Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 160537
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
A few pockets of strong/severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the central states today. In all cases, activity should
remain mostly isolated and generally marginal in severity.
...IA Region...
Weak large-scale height falls will spread across SD/NE into IA later
this evening ahead of a strong short-wave trough. 500mb speed max
associated with this feature is currently over southern WY and
should translate into central NE by 17/00z. In response, weak
surface low is expected to develop over the central Plains then
track into northern IA during the latter half of the period. While
low-level moisture is somewhat lacking across this region, strong
heating across western/central KS should encourage frontal
convection into south-central NE as surface parcels reach their
convective temperatures in the lower 70s -- likely by 22z. This
activity will develop within a modestly sheared, warm-advection
regime that should favor weak supercell development. While forecast
buoyancy is not that strong, adequate shear/forcing suggest at least
an isolated threat for hail/wind, and perhaps a brief tornado. This
activity should spread into IA during the evening.
...East TX/Lower MS Valley...
Low-latitude short-wave trough is moving slowly across west TX into
south-central TX which is producing an elongated corridor of deep
convection from near the Red River, south to the international
border near LRD. An expanding cold pool has developed in the wake of
the squall line and this should encourage eastward propagation to
near the lower Sabine River Valley by the start of the day1 period.
Latest model guidance suggests convection may redevelop behind the
MCS, beneath the upper trough, as some boundary layer warming occurs
during the early afternoon. The most likely area for redevelopment
should be along the northern fringe of early-day convection into the
Arklatex where the MCS should have less influence. Poor lapse rates
and only modest shear suggest this activity should remain mostly
marginally severe.
...Southern High Plains...
Weak northwesterly flow will develop at mid levels across the
southern Rockies/southern High Plains region today. This will allow
strong boundary-layer heating to occur across eastern CO/eastern NM
such that convective temperatures should be breached by late
afternoon. With light upslope flow expected into the higher terrain
of southeastern CO/northeast NM, a few supercells could develop then
spread south across the plains of eastern NM.
..Darrow/Moore.. 05/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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