Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
199,157
10,797,410
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Shreveport, LA...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 161246
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES FROM IA TO DEEP SOUTH TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon to early evening, across portions of the central states.
...Lower MO Valley...
A shortwave trough near the Black Hills will gradually move east
into western IA by early Sunday. Weak mid-level height falls in
conjunction with an MCV ahead of the trough over south-central NE
should be the focus for renewed convective development by late
afternoon across southeast NE to the IA/MO border area. Upper 50s
surface dew points across KS to northern MO will slowly advect north
through the day with a more pronounced surge expected towards late
afternoon as a surface cyclone deepens near northeast
NE/west-central IA. A modest combination of mid-level lapse rates
and deep-layer shear should preclude a greater severe threat, but
some enlargement to low-level hodographs will foster a risk for a
couple severe storms.
...Ark-La-Tex vicinity...
Warm-core mid-level trough across the heart of TX will drift
northeast into the Ark-La-Tex through early Sunday. In the wake of
extensive overturning early this morning, immense cloud debris
should result in more pronounced boundary-layer heating occurring
from the Lower MS Valley arcing north into AR. With the lack of an
elevated mixed layer, scattered thunderstorms should develop by
early afternoon within the warm conveyor arcing northwest ahead of
the trough. These may overlap with a narrow belt of enhanced
low-level southeasterlies to foster a risk for a brief tornado and
locally damaging winds from transient low-level mesocyclones. Modest
effective shear around 20-30 kt, along with weak mid-level lapse
rates should curtail the overall severe risk.
...Southern High Plains...
Weak northwesterly flow will develop at mid levels across the
southern Rockies/High Plains region today. This will allow
strong boundary-layer heating to occur across eastern CO/NM
such that convective temperatures should be breached by late
afternoon. With light upslope flow expected into the higher terrain
of southeast CO/northeast NM, a couple supercells could develop and
then spread south-southeast before weakening towards sunset.
...Deep South TX...
Isolated severe wind/hail will be possible with convection rooted
atop remnant convective outflow that has surged well into western
Gulf. This threat should wane by midday.
..Grams/Goss.. 05/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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