Pine Bluff, AR...Hot Springs, AR...Texarkana, TX...Texarkana, AR...Benton, AR...
MARGINAL
114,374
4,718,665
Shreveport, LA...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...Cedar Rapids, IA...Fort Smith, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
21,155
931,534
Pine Bluff, AR...Hot Springs, AR...Texarkana, TX...Texarkana, AR...Benton, AR...
2 %
84,768
4,447,784
Shreveport, LA...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...Cedar Rapids, IA...Fort Smith, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
136,135
5,663,539
Shreveport, LA...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...Cedar Rapids, IA...Fort Smith, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
64,381
2,150,684
Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...Waterloo, IA...Iowa City, IA...Ames, IA...
SPC AC 170043
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER IOWA AS WELL....
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two remain possible across the Ark-La-Tex region
this evening. A few strong storms may also develop from eastern
Nebraska into Iowa/Illinois with isolated severe threat.
...Arklatex into central AR...
An arcing band of storms continues to lift north in association with
an upper low, within a very moist air mass with PWAT up to 2".
Curved hodographs in the low-levels as well as 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE
may support at least an isolated tornado threat for a few more hours
as storms move north into central AR. The 00Z LZK sounding shows
over 150 m2/s2 effective SRH, with a favorably shaped hodograph for
northeast-moving cells. Shear is forecast to decrease later this
evening, as will instability, reducing the threat. For more
information see mesoscale discussion 617.
...Eastern NE into IA...
A surface low is expected to deepen slightly over IA through the
period, as a shortwave trough moves east across the MO River this
evening. Wind in the low-levels are expected to back a bit, with
increased speeds at 850 mb. This will result in an increase in SRH
(over 200 m2/s2) across parts of IA, but the greatest values will be
in more stable regions. Lift maximized near the low may support
isolated severe storms, perhaps a supercell or two this evening.
Although instability will be weak at around 500 J/kg MLCAPE, low
LCLs, favorable lift and sufficient hodograph curvature could result
in a brief tornado. For more information see mesoscale discussion
618.
..Jewell.. 05/17/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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