Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 171642
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A few brief tornadoes and isolated wind damage are possible between
about 3 to 9 PM CDT in parts of the Midwest, centered on eastern
Illinois and western Indiana. Isolated severe hail and/or wind are
also possible this afternoon into early evening across parts of the
Northwest, southern Rockies, and Mid to Deep South.
...Midwest...
Broken cloud cover and scattered precipitation remain semi-prevalent
at late morning within the warm/moist conveyor preceding an
eastward-moving cold front, although cloud breaks are noted across
southern Illinois. Lingering clouds/precipitation may still tend to
somewhat curb the overall severe potential particularly where
deep-layer/low-level shear is strongest near the warm front.
However, gradual destabilization coincident with cloud breaks in the
presence of 60s F surface dewpoints will support an increase and
intensification of surface-based storms initially across
northeast/central/southern Illinois this afternoon. Aided by a belt
of moderately strong low-level southerly winds, transient low-level
mesocyclones and organizing small bowing segments will be capable of
producing brief tornadoes/isolated wind damage.
...Mississippi/western Tennessee...
Deep-layer/low-level winds will tend to weaken today ahead of the
upper low approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley. Moderate
destabilization will otherwise occur within a moist air mass ahead
of an eastward-moving cold front. While an overly
organized/sustained severe risk is not expected, some severe storms
are possible this afternoon through early evening.
...Northwest/Northern Intermountain West...
Forcing for ascent and moderately strong wind profiles will be
influenced by the exit region of a strong mid/upper-level jet.
Clouds will tend to thin/scatter into the afternoon, with subsequent
storm development/intensification expected toward peak heating, with
this initially occurring across eastern Oregon into southeast
Washington through late afternoon. Isolated severe hail/wind will be
possible.
...South-central Colorado/northeast New Mexico...
Mid-level heights will rise today, although weak low-level upslope
flow/differential heating should contribute to isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon near the Sangre de Cristos and Raton Mesa
vicinity. Steep lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear should
exist for a brief supercell or two capable of marginally severe hail
and gusty winds.
..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/17/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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