May 18, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 18 00:50:57 UTC 2020 (20200518 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200518 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200518 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 23,508 3,981,425 Indianapolis, IN...Evansville, IN...South Bend, IN...Bloomington, IN...Lafayette, IN...
MARGINAL 149,378 9,916,349 Memphis, TN...Louisville, KY...Fort Wayne, IN...Spokane, WA...Clarksville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200518 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 25,455 4,170,479 Indianapolis, IN...Evansville, IN...South Bend, IN...Bloomington, IN...Lafayette, IN...
2 % 68,205 7,576,180 Memphis, TN...Louisville, KY...Fort Wayne, IN...Clarksville, TN...Gary, IN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200518 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 24,038 4,110,531 Indianapolis, IN...Evansville, IN...South Bend, IN...Bloomington, IN...Lafayette, IN...
5 % 139,636 9,594,257 Memphis, TN...Fort Wayne, IN...Spokane, WA...Clarksville, TN...Gary, IN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200518 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 70,321 1,278,782 Spokane, WA...Missoula, MT...Lewiston, ID...Opportunity, WA...Pullman, WA...
   SPC AC 180050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

   Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
   INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms with a brief tornado or strong wind gust remain
   possible over Indiana and western Kentucky this evening.

   ...Indiana and vicinity...
   Cooling aloft will persist this evening as an upper low moves east
   across IL, and this may counteract the loss of heating east of the
   cold front somewhat. Low-level shear will remain favorable for
   rotating storms, most likely within the slow-moving band of storms
   where damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado are possible For more
   information see MCD #624.

   ...Southwest LA...
   Isolated storms persist over southwest LA on the backside of the
   upper low. While a moist air mass is aiding the ongoing small cells,
   a rapid influx of dry air aloft is expected over the next few hours
   out of the northwest. Effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 may sustain a
   small supercell in the near term, but the threat is expected to
   diminish rapidly this evening. See MCD #625 for more information.

   ..Jewell.. 05/18/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z