Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 221632
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
INTO ARKANSAS...AND OVER THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected today from north Texas into Arkansas, as
well as across portions of the Carolinas.
...MO/AR...
A long-lived MCS is tracking across southern MO and western AR.
This cluster of storms has not been particularly strong for the past
few hours, but slow heating across central AR may lead to
intensification by early afternoon. Ample low-level moisture and
moderate CAPE values, coupled with stronger westerly midlevel flow
just to the north may be sufficient for damaging/severe winds along
the leading edge of the MCS. It is unclear how far east these
storms may remain intense, but have extended the SLGT to near the MS
river for later today.
...TX...
The aforementioned MCS has resulted in an expansive cold pool and
associated outflow boundary that has pushed into north TX. This
cold pool is much larger than any morning model guidance, which
lends significant uncertainty to convective evolution later today.
The outflow boundary is slowing its southward motion, and is likely
to stall across north TX. Strong heating north of the boundary,
along with a strengthening southerly low-level jet later this
afternoon/evening still appear favorable for intense thunderstorm
development. Large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear will result
in supercell storms capable of very large hail. Interaction with
the outflow boundary may also result in a tornado or two.
...Carolinas...
A linear MCS is currently moving across the mountains of north
GA/western NC. These storms will move into northern SC and much of
NC this afternoon and early evening. Visible satellite imagery
shows strong heating and considerable destabilization occurring in
this region. Strengthening flow aloft will also help to
organize/maintain the storms. Present indications are that activity
will intensify early this afternoon and pose a risk of damaging wind
gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area to this region.
..Hart/Bentley.. 05/22/2020
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