Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
196,343
13,216,349
Chicago, IL...Lubbock, TX...Aurora, IL...Naperville, IL...Sioux Falls, SD...
5 %
268,510
17,741,062
San Antonio, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
178,951
2,193,737
Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...San Angelo, TX...Grand Island, NE...
SPC AC 240101
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with very large hail and severe wind will affect parts
of the northern and southern Great Plains through tonight. A few
severe storms will linger across the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity.
...Southern Lake MI Vicinity...
Onset of diurnal cooling, along with weakening upper low over
southern WI, suggest ongoing convection in the vicinity of southern
Lake Michigan should gradually wane this evening. Even so, several
strong/severe thunderstorm clusters have yet to ingest cooler/more
stable boundary layer that is immediately downstream across southern
LM into extreme northeast IN. Marginally severe hail, locally severe
wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado can be expected for the next few
hours.
...High Plains...
Deep convection is gradually expanding along a corridor from western
SD into the NE Panhandle along cold front that is surging east ahead
of a notable short-wave trough. This activity is expected to be
maintained by increasing LLJ that should increase from western KS
into south-central NE toward 06z.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, extreme buoyancy has
contributed to another bout of diurnally driven thunderstorm
clusters across west TX. Latest satellite imagery suggests ample
cloud-top evacuation is ongoing such that an MCS will likely evolve
across portions of northwest TX over the next few hours. This
cluster should propagate east off the higher terrain into a corridor
of very moist/unstable air which will continue to support hail/wind.
..Darrow.. 05/24/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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