San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Wichita, KS...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...
MARGINAL
297,792
31,463,166
Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
86,811
4,048,980
San Antonio, TX...Wichita, KS...Laredo, TX...Amarillo, TX...Salina, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
177,663
8,963,637
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Wichita, KS...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...
5 %
293,488
31,376,780
Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
177,734
8,970,767
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Wichita, KS...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...
5 %
294,402
31,264,854
Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
SPC AC 250048
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging wind, are
expected through tonight in a broad swath from south Texas to
central Kansas.
...TX to KS...
Early-day thunderstorm clusters that developed over southeast TX
have conglomerated into a larger slow-moving MCS that has negatively
influenced the air mass/buoyancy over much of this region. However,
convective outflow arcs from the upper TX Coast into south-central
TX immediately ahead of a new developing MCS. This upstream MCS is
expected to mature and propagate southeast toward the middle TX
Coast tonight as a reservoir of weakly-capped instability resides
across the warm sector. Have extended higher severe probabilities
into deep south TX to account for this scenario.
Farther north, scattered strong/severe thunderstorms should continue
this evening from the TX South Plains into central KS. There is some
indication that strengthening LLJ over western OK this evening
should assist in the longevity of this activity as it propagates
east after sunset. While deep-layer flow is not particularly strong,
approaching short-wave trough and modest shear seem supportive of
hail/wind with this convection.
..Darrow.. 05/25/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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