SPC AC 250539

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind
   gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are expected across parts of Texas
   this afternoon and overnight. A few strong storms are possible from
   northeast Texas to Wisconsin, as well as southern Florida.

   ...TX...

   Late-evening model guidance suggests a mid-level speed max will
   translate across AZ into the base of southern Rockies trough near
   the Big Bend of west TX by 26/00z. As weak height falls spread into
   the southern High Plains, surface pressures should rise across
   eastern NM which will force a sharp cold front to a position from
   CDS-MAF-ELP at 18z. With strongest boundary-layer heating expected
   across far west TX it appears convective temperatures will first be
   breached along this portion of the wind shift as mid-level
   temperatures cool and lapse rates steepen. Given the low-latitude
   speed max, strongest deep-layer shear will be noted near the
   international border, and this is where discrete supercells are
   expected. Latest CAMs suggest pre-frontal convection will grow
   upscale across southwest TX then propagate southeast along a
   corridor of strong instability. An expansive MCS will likely evolve
   across this region which should spread toward the south TX Coast
   during the overnight hours. Early in the convective cycle, large
   hail and even a few tornadoes appear possible; however, damaging
   winds will be more common after sunset as convection matures into an
   MCS.

   ...Northeast TX to WI...

   Remnants of slow-moving, decayed MCS near the Arklatex are forecast
   to lift north within a seasonally weak-flow regime later today.
   Given this movement, somewhat stronger southerly 700mb flow will
   extend along a corridor from AR into southern IA through early
   evening. Scattered convection will easily develop ahead of this
   feature within a weak lapse-rate environment and there may be
   adequate flow for some convective organization. Gusty winds are the
   primary threat.

   ...South FL...

   Weak disturbance west of the FL Keys is forecast to lift northeast
   during the day. In response, LLJ should translate across the
   southern Peninsula to near the Atlantic Coast by afternoon. Early
   this morning, strong convection has developed across the FL Straits,
   extending to south of MIA. This convective orientation may hold as
   flow begins to veer and LLJ strengthens between MIA-MLB during the
   afternoon. Given the high-PW air mass and poor lapse rates, the
   primary threats will be gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado.

   ..Darrow/Lyons.. 05/25/2020

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